A Fresh Look at Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Valuation After Insider Buying and Revised Earnings Outlook

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) has seen renewed interest after a board director increased his stake in the company. At the same time, analysts have revised their earnings estimates downward amid evolving market conditions.

See our latest analysis for Arbor Realty Trust.

Even with insider buying attracting attention, Arbor Realty Trust’s short-term momentum tells a different story. The share price recently slid 12.7% over the past month and is down over 36% year-to-date, while a total shareholder return of -31.5% over the past year suggests sentiment has yet to recover. Still, moderate total returns over the past five years indicate that long-term investors have fared better, even as near-term challenges redefine what is possible going forward.

If you’re scanning the market for fresh opportunities beyond real estate, now is a great moment to expand your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares now trading at a significant discount to analyst price targets, and after a challenging year, the key question is whether Arbor Realty Trust is undervalued or if the market has already priced in future risks and growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 26.6% Undervalued

Arbor Realty Trust’s most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value that is significantly higher than its last close price of $8.81, creating a sharp contrast between market sentiment and analyst projections.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $12.312 for Arbor Realty Trust based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.5.

Read the complete narrative.

Think this valuation is bold? The full narrative reveals how analyst consensus leans on aggressive margin expansion and future profits. It is not just about today’s numbers. There are key assumptions at play, shaping a future multiple you might not expect. Want to see what is driving this sizable gap? Dive into the real story behind the price target.

Result: Fair Value of $12.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent inflation or setbacks in loan performance could quickly undermine even the most optimistic projections for Arbor Realty Trust’s recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this Arbor Realty Trust narrative.

Build Your Own Arbor Realty Trust Narrative

If you see things differently or prefer to dig into the details yourself, you can build your own narrative with just a few quick steps: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Arbor Realty Trust research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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