Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

NasdaqGS:KSPI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$16.3b

Kaspi.kz Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Kaspi.kz is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 17.2% and 15.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 42.6% in 3 years.

Key information

17.2%

Earnings growth rate

10.16%

EPS growth rate

Consumer Finance earnings growth19.3%
Revenue growth rate15.3%
Future return on equity42.64%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated23 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 04

KSPI: Future P/E Framework And Dividend Payout Will Guide Balanced Return Potential

Analysts have lifted their Kaspi.kz price target by about $3 to reflect updated views on fair value, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E following recent research, including Susquehanna's $8 price target increase. Analyst Commentary Even with the recent upward move in fair value estimates, some bearish analysts are still flagging risks that could cap upside for Kaspi.kz if things do not go to plan.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 22

Kaspi.Kz: Tencent Sees It, The Numbers Confirm It (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Kaspi.kz (KSPI), Kazakhstan's leading super-app, is seeing renewed momentum, notably after Tencent acquired a significant 3.2% stake. KSPI's payments and marketplace segments are growing robustly, with e-commerce purchases projected to rise 83% in FY 2025 despite smartphone sales headwinds. Fintech margins remain pressured by Kazakhstan's high 18% benchmark rate and new taxes, but loan growth and platform engagement remain solid. Kaspi's Turkish expansion via Hepsiburada and a potential Rabobank acquisition could unlock new banking revenue streams, though timing and cash flow impact remain uncertain. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 20

KSPI: Dividend Support And Resilient Margins Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their Kaspi.kz price target by roughly $1.55 per share. Slightly lower fair value and profit margin assumptions outweighed higher modeled revenue growth and a modestly lower future P/E, with the recent downgrade from Susquehanna cited as reinforcing a more cautious stance.
Narrative Update • Apr 06

KSPI: Future P/E Reset And Dividend Policy Are Expected To Shape Returns

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Kaspi.kz from $87.52 to $79.97, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple, along with a recent downgrade from Susquehanna that reflects a more cautious stance on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are signaling that the latest cut in the Kaspi.kz price target to $79.97 reflects growing concern about how current assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and the future P/E multiple compare with execution risks.
Narrative Update • Mar 23

KSPI: Higher Margins And Dividend Policy Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Kaspi.kz from $107.59 to $99.47, citing more cautious revenue growth assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, a modestly higher profit margin outlook, and a lower future P/E, in line with the recent downgrade and a softer stance in Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the reduced discount rate and slightly higher profit margin outlook as signs that Kaspi.kz is still seen as capable of supporting solid profitability over time, even with a lower price target.
Narrative Update • Mar 08

KSPI: Execution And Earnings Resilience Will Support Confidence After Susquehanna Downgrade

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Kaspi.kz from about $136 to $128, citing lower projected revenue growth, a slightly adjusted discount rate, and a more conservative future P/E assumption, partly reflected in the recent downgrade from Susquehanna. Analyst Commentary While some research has turned more cautious on Kaspi.kz, there are still clear areas that bullish analysts highlight when they look at the story, especially around execution, growth potential, and how those factors could feed into valuation over time.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

KSPI: Execution And Profitability Will Underpin Confidence After Recent Downgrade

Analysts have trimmed their Kaspi.kz price target from about $142 to roughly $136, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, along with a recent downgrade from Susquehanna that has contributed to a more cautious stance. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to Kaspi.kz's current P/E assumptions as still leaving room for upside if the company can deliver on its planned execution and maintain its profitability profile.
Narrative Update • Feb 08

KSPI: Updated Fair Value Will Support Confidence Despite Recent Downgrade

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Kaspi.kz from US$130.73 to US$142.24, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples, even as some firms have turned more cautious in recent research. Analyst Commentary Despite the recent downgrade from one research house, the overall Street discussion around Kaspi.kz still includes some constructive angles that many retail investors focus on when weighing the name against its updated fair value of US$142.24.
Narrative Update • Jan 25

KSPI: Stable Profitability And Lower P/E Will Support Future Upside Potential

Kaspi.kz's updated analyst price target now reflects a fair value of about $107.59, slightly below the prior $108.16, as analysts fine tune their assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and forward P/E to align more closely with recent inputs. Valuation Changes Fair Value: The price target was adjusted slightly from about $108.16 to about $107.59, a small downward move in the modeled fair value.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

KSPI: Slightly Lower Fair Value Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Kaspi.kz from US$108.57 to US$108.16, reflecting updates to their assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and forward P/E. Valuation Changes Fair value estimate trimmed slightly from US$108.57 to US$108.16 per share.
Narrative Update • Dec 23

KSPI: Forward Earnings Discount Is Expected To Drive Future Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on Kaspi.kz to $107 from $114, citing the stock's 25% decline over the past year and its current significant discount to historical forward earnings multiples despite ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment on Kaspi.kz has turned more constructive at the margin, with the latest price target adjustment to $107 reflecting both recognition of the company’s resilient fundamentals and acknowledgement of persistent headwinds.
Narrative Update • Dec 09

KSPI: Discounted Entry After 25% Pullback Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Kaspi.kz slightly higher from approximately $108.32 to $108.57, citing the stock's recent 25% pullback and its current significant discount to historical forward earnings multiples, despite ongoing regulatory and macro headwinds. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment around Kaspi.kz has turned more constructive following the recent share price correction, with upgraded ratings reflecting a view that current levels undervalue the company relative to its historical fundamentals and earnings power.
Narrative Update • Nov 25

KSPI: Discounted Price Will Offer Upside As Regulatory Headwinds Fade

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Kaspi.kz from $114 to $107, citing continued regulatory challenges and a higher monetary policy environment. They also noted the stock's current discounted valuation.
Narrative Update • Nov 06

KSPI: Upgraded Buy Rating Will Drive Upside Amid Regulatory Pressures

Analysts lowered their price target for Kaspi.kz from $111.40 to $109.68, citing recent regulatory headwinds and persistent monetary policy pressures. They also noted the stock's current discounted valuation despite improved revenue growth prospects.
Narrative Update • Oct 23

Analysts Weigh Attractive Valuation and Risks as Kaspi.kz Faces Regulatory and Market Headwinds

Analysts have reduced their price target for Kaspi.kz from $114 to $107, citing ongoing regulatory costs and a challenging monetary policy environment. However, they note that the stock's recent decline leaves it trading at a significant discount to historical earnings multiples.
Narrative Update • Oct 08

Kazakhstan And Turkey Markets Will Unlock Digital Opportunity

Kaspi.kz's analyst price target has been revised downward from $114 to $107, as analysts cite regulatory headwinds, persistent monetary policy challenges, and recent stock underperformance as contributing factors. Analyst Commentary Analysts have issued updated perspectives on Kaspi.kz following recent developments and share price movements.
Narrative Update • Aug 27

Kazakhstan And Turkey Markets Will Unlock Digital Opportunity

Kaspi.kz’s valuation outlook has shifted as analysts significantly lowered both future P/E and revenue growth expectations, yet the consensus price target only edged up slightly from $111.07 to $112.84. What's in the News Kaspi.kz and Alipay+ have enabled international cross-border QR payments in Kazakhstan, allowing users of 12 Alipay+-enabled apps to pay via Kaspi QR at a wide range of merchants.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

Kaspi: A High-Quality Technology Business Trading On A Dirt Cheap Multiple

Summary Kaspi is a dominant market leader in Kazakhstan across payments, e-commerce, and fintech, boasting 41% net income margins in Q3 2024. 70% of the Kazakhstan population use Kaspi on a monthly basis and engagement across their suite of services is very high. The company has a proven track record of launching and scaling new services, such as online travel and groceries, and is expanding internationally into markets like Turkey. Kaspi's very high insider ownership (73%) and visionary CEO, Mikheil Lomtadze, ensure strong alignment with shareholder interests and ambitious growth plans. Despite geopolitical risks, Kaspi's current valuation (7x forward P/E) offers a compelling investment opportunity with potential for significant returns and geographic portfolio diversification. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 09

Kaspi.kz Has Flourished With Growth, But Long-Term Future May Depend On Overseas Expansion

Summary Kaspi (NASDAQ: KSPI) is a high-growth fintech company in Kazakhstan, offering essential apps like Kaspi Super App and Kaspi Pay with strong user and merchant bases. Despite high price/book ratios, Kaspi's low P/E multiples and strong dividend policy make it an attractive investment, especially given its impressive revenue and earnings growth. Kaspi's expansion efforts, including the acquisition of Hepsiburada in Turkey, are crucial for future growth beyond Kazakhstan, though they come with inherent risks. Investors should monitor Kazakhstan's economic conditions and Kaspi's international ventures, as these factors will significantly impact the company's future performance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Nov 07

Kaspi's Expansion In Turkey Promises Long-Term Growth Despite Economic Headwinds

Strategic acquisition in Turkey and advanced service integration are expected to drive long-term revenue and earnings growth through technology leverage and operational efficiencies.
Seeking Alpha • Oct 27

Hepsiburada Changes Everything For Kaspi

Summary Kaspi's acquisition of Hepsiburada aims to expand its market presence beyond Kazakhstan, targeting Turkey's growing eCommerce sector despite competition and valuation challenges. Hepsiburada's innovative culture aligns with Kaspi's, offering BNPL loans, payment services, and logistics, and boasts high customer satisfaction with an NPS of 75. Turkish market risks include Chinese competition and fluctuating inflation, complicating Hepsiburada's valuation, but Kaspi's strategic move could yield significant long-term growth. Kaspi's Q3 results showed solid growth despite inflation, and the company's response to short-seller criticisms reinforces confidence in its transparency and systemic importance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 24

Kaspi.kz: Look Beyond The Short Seller Report, But Hold For Now (Downgrade)

Summary Kaspi faces allegations of money laundering and Russian business ties, but it's unclear if they violated sanctions or were complicit. Kaspi's valuation is questioned, with comparisons to competitors and concerns about high value per user. Kaspi's response to the allegations is vague, but Fitch's BBB- rating provides some credibility. Despite Kaspi's strengths, I recommend holding off on investments until the next earnings call for more clarity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 10

Kaspi.kz: The Super App Remains Super

Summary Kaspi.kz stock has seen a 31.6% total return in recent months. Investors are becoming more aware of the company's growth potential. Strong performance is expected to continue in the near future. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 17

Kaspi.kz: Kazakh Super App Offers Hypergrowth At Value Prices

Summary Kaspi.kz is Kazakhstan's most valuable listed company, offering a super app with features like payments, e-commerce, travel, and government services. The company has a dominant market position and is growing rapidly, with a low valuation and a policy of returning capital to shareholders. Kaspi.kz's revenue and net income quality is improving due to marketplace and payments growth. Kaspi is also expanding internationally. We rate the stock a BUY with a conservative target price of $129. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Kaspi.kz: Dominant Business With More Room To Grow

Summary Kaspi is a super app in Kazakhstan, offering ecommerce, payments, and fintech services. The company's growth potential lies in increasing usage within its active user base and potential international expansion. Despite the risk associated with investing in a frontier market, Kaspi's strong financials and growth trajectory make it an attractive investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:KSPI - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (KZT Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,633,4741,908,000N/AN/A1
12/31/20275,478,1791,344,124N/AN/A3
12/31/20264,753,0751,066,583N/AN/A3
12/31/20254,043,3281,073,177491,098673,611N/A
9/30/20253,656,0781,100,697358,377499,896N/A
6/30/20253,181,4791,090,972665,456807,082N/A
3/31/20252,803,5131,072,196522,685636,082N/A
12/31/20242,544,1391,039,739486,166581,892N/A
9/30/20242,370,679972,121659,939731,611N/A
6/30/20242,223,509933,584369,919423,533N/A
3/31/20242,061,394887,847647,110699,332N/A
12/31/20231,902,598841,3511,055,8711,106,128N/A
9/30/20231,722,373784,2171,017,2251,085,339N/A
6/30/20231,559,341718,3041,297,5201,365,156N/A
3/31/20231,408,004656,1871,155,0601,215,543N/A
12/31/20221,269,215585,026961,5161,020,984N/A
9/30/20221,151,798534,245527,905573,613N/A
6/30/20221,053,118492,831278,328315,198N/A
3/31/2022970,264459,76519,40846,854N/A
12/31/2021885,478431,91445,45070,351N/A
9/30/2021753,756373,819197,697210,408N/A
6/30/2021675,046318,186458,586476,310N/A
3/31/2021611,752272,705670,338688,044N/A
12/31/2020602,869260,964599,540617,729N/A
9/30/2020611,615244,432537,548561,476N/A
6/30/2020586,148233,524460,321483,229N/A
3/31/2020569,537225,293206,410224,710N/A
12/31/2019513,914193,790279,415296,347N/A
9/30/2019467,463158,293N/A308,742N/A
6/30/2019433,061133,017N/A277,319N/A
3/31/2019400,437114,159N/AN/AN/A
12/31/2018375,331105,540N/A35,657N/A
9/30/2018347,96292,425N/A34,084N/A
6/30/2018316,93476,463N/A-23,746N/A
3/31/2018282,87277,797N/AN/AN/A
12/31/2017275,75349,015N/A141,589N/A
12/31/2016223,3034,159N/A76,355N/A
12/31/201587,583-8,153N/A8,090N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KSPI's forecast earnings growth (17.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: KSPI's earnings (17.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KSPI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: KSPI's revenue (15.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KSPI's revenue (15.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KSPI's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (42.6%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/10 04:00
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/08 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is covered by 13 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Maksim NekrasovCitigroup Inc
Ronald JoseyCitigroup Inc
Ronak GadhiaEFG-Hermes Research