Major Estimate Revision • May 19
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 29% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from US$48.5m to US$34.4m. Forecast losses increased from -US$0.62 to -US$0.997 per share. Capital Markets industry in the US expected to see average net income growth of 13% next year. Consensus price target up from US$3.20 to US$3.41. Share price fell 19% to US$1.20 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 13
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: US$0.59 loss per share (improved from US$1.92 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$5.59m (down 21% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: US$29.2m (loss narrowed 40% from 1Q 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 44%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is forecast to grow 47% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Capital Markets industry in the US. Announcement • Apr 29
Fold Holdings, Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 12, 2026 Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on May 12, 2026 Announcement • Apr 25
Fold Holdings, Inc. Announces Bitcoin Bonus Program Fold Holdings, Inc. announced the Bitcoin Bonus Program, an easy-to-use employee bonus program that lets employers deliver recurring bitcoin bonuses with built-in vesting without changing payroll systems or taking on custody or compliance responsibilities. The Bitcoin Bonus Program is the first offering from Fold Business, a B2B bitcoin financial platform that extends Fold’s bitcoin financial tools to businesses and their employees. Implementation is simple; employers designate USD bonus amounts on their existing payroll cadence and Fold does the rest; Bitcoin conversion, custody, vesting administration, and employee-facing delivery through the Fold app. No prior Bitcoin knowledge is required. Unlike typical cash bonuses that often disappear into everyday expenses or one-time purchases, the Bitcoin Bonus Program taps into bitcoin’s value as a long-term asset that employees can track, hold, and grow over time. When paired with a vesting structure, the Bitcoin Bonus Program can transform a traditional bonus into a retention mechanic. Steak ’n Shake employs over 10,000 workers across the United States. Through its program with Fold, Steak ‘n Shake is enabling these employees to earn bitcoin as part of their compensation experience. Simple Mining, a bitcoin mining hosting company based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, is also using the Bitcoin Bonus Program to reward its salaried workforce with recurring bitcoin allocations tied to tenure. Allocating 1% of every employee's pay into Bitcoin, redeemable at year-end, lets the team share in that upside. The bonus grows with time, and so does the reason to stick around. The same program is used by a 10,000-person hourly workforce and a specialized mining operation, configured for how they actually work. The employer sets the terms in dollars. Fold handles everything else. Fold’s bonus program can be especially attractive to companies with large hourly workforces at QSR chains, retail and service industries. It is also a differentiated option for tech-forward employers looking to entice and retain valuable salaried employees with more than the typical equity and cash incentives to create longer-term employee alignment. Bonuses are just the beginning for Fold Business. Over time, the Company aims to extend the Fold Business platform to include payroll, corporate bitcoin treasury management, corporate cards, and additional enterprise financial tools built on bitcoin. New Risk • Apr 17
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of American stocks, typically moving 18% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-US$17m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (18% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (US$17m net loss in 2 years). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$83k sold). Market cap is less than US$100m (US$58.4m market cap). New Risk • Mar 18
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next year. Trailing 12-month net loss: US$70m Forecast net loss in 1 year: US$28m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-US$17m free cash flow). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (US$28m net loss next year). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$83k sold). Market cap is less than US$100m (US$55.8m market cap). New Risk • Mar 05
New minor risk - Insider selling There has been significant insider selling in the company's shares over the past 3 months. Total value of shares sold: US$67k This is considered a minor risk. There are several reasons why an insider may be selling, including to cover a tax obligation or pay for some other expense. However, we generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they do so below the current price. It implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. This is a weak signal, but if there is a pattern of unexplained selling, it can be a sign the insider believes the company's stock is overpriced. Note: We only include open market transactions and private dispositions of directly owned stock by individuals, not by corporations or trusts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (US$67k sold). Market cap is less than US$100m (US$72.3m market cap). Announcement • Mar 04
Fold Holdings, Inc. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Mar 17, 2026 Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results on Mar 17, 2026 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Feb 22
Chief Technology Officer exercised options and sold US$268k worth of stock On the 19th of February, Thomas Dickman exercised options to acquire 182k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of US$1.47 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. Since March 2025, Thomas has not owned shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$216k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Announcement • Feb 16
Fold Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 19, 2026 Fold Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 19, 2026. New Risk • Feb 10
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of American stocks, typically moving 10% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (237% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Market cap is less than US$100m (US$86.5m market cap). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to US$1.54, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 2.6x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Capital Markets industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 85% over the past three years. New Risk • Jan 25
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: US$91.8m This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (237% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Market cap is less than US$100m (US$91.8m market cap). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 23
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to US$1.90, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 3.2x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Capital Markets industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 81% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 24
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to US$2.51, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 4.2x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Capital Markets industry in the US. Total loss to shareholders of 75% over the past three years. Announcement • Nov 20
Fold Holdings, Inc. Announces the Launch of Its Brand-New Affiliate Program Fold Holdings, Inc. announced the launch of its brand-new affiliate program. The initiative creates opportunities for content creators, influencers, and digital publishers to partner with Fold and earn commissions on sales generated through unique affiliate links. As shoppers prepare for Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the final stretch of the holiday season, the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card is emerging as one of the most original and meaningful gift ideas of the year. Unlike traditional gift cards or material items that lose value over time, the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card gives recipients a simple way to start saving in bitcoin, something that can grow in value long after the holidays are over. At launch, the affiliate program will focus on driving awareness and sales of the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card, the first and easiest way to give bitcoin as a gift. Available online at foldapp.com/bitcoin-gift-card and through select retailers including Kroger and Giftcards.com, the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card lets consumers purchase and send bitcoin instantly with no technical setup required. In 2026, Fold will expand its affiliate program to include additional product lines such as the Fold Bitcoin Credit Card and app installs, giving affiliates a broader opportunity to promote the company's full suite of bitcoin-powered financial products. Affiliates will enjoy: A diverse product suite including the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card, gift cards from hundreds of top brands such as Amazon, Apple, Nike, DoorDash, Home Depot, and Uber, the Fold Debit Card, custody and exchange, and the upcoming Fold Bitcoin Credit Card, Competitive commissions, starting at $9 per sale; Expansive creative support including banners, copy, and campaign assets; No promo codes or expirations to manage; Access to a dedicated in-house account manager. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.012 (up from US$8.81 loss in 3Q 2024). Net income: US$554.2k (up US$62.9m from 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 20%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 108% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.0% growth forecast for the Capital Markets industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Oct 27
Fold Holdings, Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 10, 2025 Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Nov 10, 2025 New Risk • Sep 19
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of American stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-US$11m free cash flow). Revenue has declined by 75% over the past year. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (226% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). New Risk • Aug 14
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -US$11m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-US$11m free cash flow). Revenue has declined by 75% over the past year. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (226% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.29 (up from US$0.23 loss in 2Q 2024). Net income: US$13.4m (up US$15.1m from 2Q 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 103% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Capital Markets industry in the US. Announcement • Aug 12
Fold Holdings, Inc. Launches Bitcoin Gift Card on Giftcards.com, Expanding Bitcoin Access Across the Nation's Largest Online Gift Card Marketplace Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card™ is now available on Giftcards.com, the largest digital gift card retailer in the U.S. and a key platform within Blackhawk Network's (BHN's) expansive payments ecosystem. This launch gives Fold access to one of the most heavily trafficked e-commerce destinations in the category, offering millions of consumers direct access to bitcoin in a familiar and frictionless format. The Fold Bitcoin Gift Card™? are the only gift card for bitcoin available on Giftcards.com., underscoring Fold's leadership in bringing digital assets into mainstream consumer finance. Giftcards.com offers gift cards from some of the most popular brands in the world across dining, gaming, apparel, travel and more. The addition of the Fold Bitcoin Gift Card introduces a new financial utility to this ecosystem, signaling growing demand for bitcoin-based consumer products. The integration is part of Fold's broader partnership with BHN, which provides access to over 400,000 retail and digital distribution points globally. The Giftcards.com rollout builds on Fold's strategy to offer bitcoin in high-volume consumer channels, from e-commerce and cashback apps to grocery stores and gas stations, making bitcoin as simple to access as any retail brand in the marketplace. The Fold Bitcoin Gift Card is now available for digital purchase on Giftcards.com, with additional retail and physical expansion planned later this year. Announcement • Jul 30
Fold Holdings, Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 12, 2025 Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 12, 2025 Announcement • Jun 17
Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that it expects to receive $250 million in funding Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that it has entered into an equity purchase facility agreement with an unrelated third party accredited investor, pursuant to which the Investor committed to purchase, subject to certain conditions and limitations, up to $250,000,000 in newly issued shares of the company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share on June 16, 2025. The investor will not be required to subscribe for any shares under the facility which, when aggregated with all other shares then beneficially owned by the Investor and its affiliates, and Rule 13d-3 promulgated thereunder), would result in the beneficial ownership by the Investor and its affiliates to exceed 9.99% of the outstanding voting power or number of the Common Stock. The Facility contains customary representations, warranties, conditions and indemnification obligations of the parties. The representations, warranties and covenants contained in such agreement were made only for purposes of such agreements and as of specific dates, were solely for the benefit of the parties to such agreement and may be subject to limitations agreed upon by the contracting parties. J.V.B. Financial Group, LLC, acting through its Cohen & Company Capital Markets division (“CCM”), acted as the placement agent in connection with the transactions contemplated by the Facility, for which the Company has agreed to issue 75,000 shares of Common Stock to CCM at the time of the placement of the Facility in connection. The securities that may be issued under the Facility are being offered and sold by the Company in a transaction that is exempt from the registration requirements of the Securities Act, in reliance on Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act. In the Facility, the Investor represented to the Company, among other things, that it is an “accredited investor” (as such term is defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulation D under the Securities Act). Announcement • May 16
Fold Holdings, Inc. Maintains Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2025 Fold Holdings, Inc. maintained earnings guidance for the full year 2025. For the period, the company expects prior guidance of revenue to be $61.6 million in 2025 remains unchanged. Announcement • May 07
Fold Holdings Appoints Matthew McManus as Chief Operating Officer, Effective April 21, 2025 Fold Holdings, Inc. announced the appointment of Matthew McManus as Chief Operating Officer, effective April 21, 2025. In his new role, Mr. McManus will spearhead Fold’s operational strategy, partnering closely with senior leadership to accelerate growth, optimize performance, and solidify the Company’s leadership position at the forefront of the bitcoin financial revolution. Matthew brings extensive experience to Fold, having previously served as Chief Product Officer at Unchained Capital, Inc., where he led product strategy, development, and execution. Prior to his tenure at Unchained Capital, Mr. McManus held key roles helping globally recognized brands including Twitter, Capital One, PBS & PBS KIDS, National Geographic, and Marriott. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Information Science, Systems, and Technology from Cornell University’s College of Engineering. His technical foundation, deep domain expertise, and proven experience scaling high-performing teams align strongly with Fold’s strategic vision for 2025 and beyond. Announcement • May 02
Fold Holdings, Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 15, 2025 Fold Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 15, 2025 New Risk • Feb 20
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 222% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-US$4.3m free cash flow). Negative equity (-US$74m). Revenue has declined by 10.0% over the past year. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (222% increase in shares outstanding). Board Change • Feb 19
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 6 new directors. 1 experienced director. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Kirstin Hill is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2025. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. 
