Black Rock Coffee Bar Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Black Rock Coffee Bar is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 62.3% and 21% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 56.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9% in 3 years.

Key information

62.3%

Earnings growth rate

56.28%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth	18.3%
Revenue growth rate	21.0%
Future return on equity	9.02%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	14 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Apr 07

Black Rock Coffee Bar: Growth Story Is Still Largely Intact

Summary Black Rock Coffee Bar maintains strong SSS growth and robust new store performance, supporting my reiterated buy rating. Loyalty programs and food sales are emerging as core growth drivers, with loyalty-linked transactions now 65% and food comprising 12% of sales. New store pipeline remains healthy, with 36 openings guided for 2026 and recent cohorts outperforming on sales, profit, and retention metrics. Valuation remains attractive at 3.2x forward revenue; compounding revenue at 25% through FY28 implies a share price target of ~$26. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGM:BRCB - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028	383	16	-25	47	2
12/31/2027	315	13	-12	44	8
12/31/2026	255	10	-10	39	8
3/31/2026	211	0	-39	6	N/A
12/31/2025	200	0	-33	2	N/A
9/30/2025	189	-5	-26	1	N/A
6/30/2025	179	-5	-10	16	N/A
3/31/2025	167	-6	-10	14	N/A
12/31/2024	161	-7	-10	13	N/A
12/31/2023	133	-9	-11	5	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BRCB's forecast earnings growth (62.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: BRCB's earnings (62.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BRCB's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BRCB's revenue (21% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BRCB's revenue (21% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BRCB's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2026/05/16 10:00
End of Day Share Price	2026/05/15 00:00
Earnings	2026/03/31
Annual Earnings	2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
David Tarantino	Baird
Matthew Curtis	D.A. Davidson & Co.
Andrew Barish	Jefferies LLC