This company has been acquired
BBQ Holdings (BBQ) Stock Overview
BBQ Holdings, Inc. develops, owns, operates, and franchises casual and fast dining restaurants under the Famous Dave’s, Village Inn, Clark Crew BBQ, Granite City, Tahoe Joe’s Steakhouse, Bakers Square, and Real Urban Barbecue names in the United States, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
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BBQ Holdings, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$17.24 |
| 52 Week High | US$17.56 |
| 52 Week Low | US$9.95 |
| Beta | 1.63 |
| 1 Month Change | 0.41% |
| 3 Month Change | 60.52% |
| 1 Year Change | 8.02% |
| 3 Year Change | 248.97% |
| 5 Year Change | 378.89% |
| Change since IPO | 118.92% |
Recent News & Updates
MTY Food to acquire BBQ for $17.25/share in an highly accretive transaction
MTY Food (OTCPK:MTYFF) and BBQ (NASDAQ:BBQ) entered into a definitive merger agreement wherein the former will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of the latter for cash consideration of $17.25/BBQ share representing total transaction value of ~$200M including BBQ net debt. The transaction consideration will be 100% funded in cash; MTY will use its cash on hand and its existing credit facility to fund the cash consideration. On transaction completion (expected by Q4 of 2022), BBQ will become a subsidiary of MTY and the shares of BBQ will be de-listed from Nasdaq. As of Aug. 9, 2022, BBQ operates 200+ franchised and 100+ corporate-owned restaurants; for FY22 ending Jan. 1, 2023, the company is expected to generate 12-month run-rate system sales and cash EBITDA between $685M to $725M and $25.5M and $27.5M, respectively. With this Transaction, MTY will add leading restaurant brands to its network which will reach a total of ~7K locations, including 3.9K+ in U.S. The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to MTY’s free cash flow per share; transaction represents a 7.5x multiple of BBQ mid-point FY2022E run-rate cash EBITDA guidance of $26.5M.BBQ Holdings: The Turnaround Is Now In Full Motion
BBQ is down more than 30% since my previous article which means it is a good time to revisit the investment thesis. In the short term, I believe investors are concerned that the company will suffer as consumer sentiment deteriorates across the economy. However, as evidenced by the recent results, I believe the long-term picture remains intact and the growth model based on cheap M&A deals has so far proved to be successful. According to my estimates and if management maintains the current momentum, BBQ could offer a 100% upside. Investors shouldn't get too excited just yet since market volatility will remain high in the coming months and offer numerous opportunities to accumulate shares at lower prices. Investment Thesis In my previous article on BBQ Holdings, Inc. (BBQ), I came to the conclusion that the company was pursuing a successful turnaround strategy focused on cheap acquisitions as the main growth source. You can read about it here. Since then, BBQ lost ~33% vs. a loss of ~14% for the S&P 500 and has outperformed the market. In the short term, I believe investors are concerned that deteriorating consumer sentiment will harm the company. However, I believe the long-term picture remains intact as illustrated by the recent results. Based on my estimates, BBQ could offer a 100% upside if management maintains the current momentum. As a result, I think the stock offers an attractive risk-reward scenario which makes it a buy. That said, investors shouldn't go all in just yet as I suspect that volatility will remain elevated in the markets in the months ahead and BBQ is likely to see lower prices. Recent Developments On May 10th, 2022, the company reported results for Q1 FY22. Overall, the results were solid and BBQ managed to beat both revenue and EPS estimates. Sales reached ~$64.18 million in the last quarter, representing a ~72% YoY increase. The results were boosted by the Village Inn and Tahoe Joe's Steakhouse acquisitions made in July and October 2021, respectively. More on that in my previous article on BBQ. On top of that, management remains committed to the same growth model going forward. The company acquired three bar-centric locations in March 2022, collectively referred to as Famous Craft Concepts, bringing the total cash spent on M&A deals for Q1 FY22 to $4.43 million. The company used less than $0.5 million in new debt to finance these acquisitions and mostly relied on cash from operating activities and accumulated cash reserves on its balance sheet. Another acquisition took place on April 11 2022 when BBQ closed the purchase of Barrio Queen, a chain of seven authentic Mexican fine dining restaurants in Phoenix, Arizona, for $28.5 million. BBQ 10-Q BBQ's numerous concepts continue to enjoy high comparable sales figures relative to 2019 and 2021, with a few exceptions. Famous Dave's company-owned restaurants are up 12.6%, whereas Village Inn and Bakers Square are down vs 2019. The next quarters will be very important to watch as they will give investors a good idea if management is successful in turning around these two lagging concepts. Given how high inflation is at the moment, I expect same-store sales to remain high over the next year on a company-wide level. BBQ Investor Relations Website TTM sales have now reached ~$233 million, and are at a multi-decade high. The turnaround is in full swing and management was successful in transforming this failing restaurant chain into a thriving M&A growth machine, while keeping the amount of leverage limited. BBQ finished the last quarter with less than $15 million in total debt, which is relatively low compared to the total amount spent on acquisitions in the previous 24 months. Management now expects revenue of $290 to $310 million for FY22, which is ~9% higher compared to the previous guidance from March 2022. Refinitiv Eikon What's good to see is that operations have benefited from this growth model. The TTM gross profit has now exceeded the 2015 high of ~$35 million and TTM cash from operating activities came close to $23.5 million. According to management, FY22 free cash flow is expected to range from $13.5 to $15.5 million, unchanged from what was communicated in March 2022. Refinitiv Eikon The company has a ~17% TTM gross margin, which remains below the 20% average between 2010 and 2015. It is of course very hard to compare today's situation with the last decade since BBQ has completely changed its strategy and is now focused on growing through acquisitions. This business model will impact the gross margin with every new acquisition. The operating margin is also stable at around ~13%, which is in line with other competitors. Refinitiv Eikon Refinitiv Eikon Valuation In my previous article on BBQ, I argued that the business was fairly priced at ~9.4x EV/EBITDA. Based on 10.6 million shares outstanding, the company has a market cap of approximately $117.6 million. In this part, I have used a DCF model to value the business. The following assumptions have been made in the model: Estimated free cash flow for FY23 of $17 million, slightly below Wall Street estimates of $19 million to provide a conservative intrinsic value figure. A growth rate of 5% until FY26. A 2% terminal growth rate. A 10% discount rate, in line with BBQ's WACC.The Return Trends At BBQ Holdings (NASDAQ:BBQ) Look Promising
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...What Does BBQ Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BBQ) Share Price Indicate?
BBQ Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:BBQ ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during...Recent updates
Shareholder Returns
| BBQ | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 0.06% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| 1Y | 8.0% | -4.1% | 23.5% |
Return vs Industry: BBQ exceeded the US Hospitality industry which returned -31.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: BBQ exceeded the US Market which returned -22.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| BBQ volatility | |
|---|---|
| BBQ Average Weekly Movement | 14.1% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 7.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.7% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: BBQ's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.
Volatility Over Time: BBQ's weekly volatility (14%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 2,374 | Jeff Crivello | www.bbq-holdings.com |
BBQ Holdings, Inc. develops, owns, operates, and franchises casual and fast dining restaurants under the Famous Dave’s, Village Inn, Clark Crew BBQ, Granite City, Tahoe Joe’s Steakhouse, Bakers Square, and Real Urban Barbecue names in the United States, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates. It offers smoked, barbequed, and grilled meats, as well as entrée items, and side dishes and appetizers. The company operates full-service and counter-service restaurants.
BBQ Holdings, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| BBQ fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$185.50m |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$12.38m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$267.73m |
Is BBQ overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| BBQ income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$267.73m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$227.80m |
| Gross Profit | US$39.93m |
| Other Expenses | US$27.55m |
| Earnings | US$12.38m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jul 03, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 1.15 |
| Gross Margin | 14.91% |
| Net Profit Margin | 4.62% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 34.2% |
How did BBQ perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/09/27 20:46 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/09/27 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/07/03 |
| Annual Earnings | 2022/01/02 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
BBQ Holdings, Inc. is covered by 5 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Conrad Lyon | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Brooks O'Neil | Colliers Securities |
| Alex Fuhrman | Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC |