Guardian Pharmacy Services Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of GRDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GRDN ($21.27) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($31.49)

Is GRDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GRDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GRDN ($21.27) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($31.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRDN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GRDN?

Key metric: As GRDN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GRDN. This is calculated by dividing GRDN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GRDN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1.1x
Sales	US$1.17b
Market Cap	US$1.36b

GRDN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-31.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GRDN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GRDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.09x
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance	0.05x	1.5%	US$7.2b
YI 111	0.03x	10.2%	US$53.1m
IMKT.A Ingles Markets	0.2x	n/a	US$1.3b
UNFI United Natural Foods	0.04x	0.1%	US$1.3b
GRDN Guardian Pharmacy Services	1.1x	6.6%	US$1.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GRDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (0.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GRDN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Retailing Industry?

13 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance	0.05x	1.5%	US$7.17b
UNFI United Natural Foods	0.04x	0.1%	US$1.31b
SPTN SpartanNash	0.06x	1.4%	US$615.01m
YI 111	0.03x	10.2%	US$53.12m

13 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GRDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GRDN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GRDN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.1x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GRDN's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.