Toll Brothers, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$1.9b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 14%, coming in at just US$1.75 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Toll Brothers

Taking into account the latest results, Toll Brothers' 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$10.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 7.6% to US$13.95 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.31 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$150, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Toll Brothers analyst has a price target of US$183 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$115. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Toll Brothers' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Toll Brothers.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Toll Brothers. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toll Brothers going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Toll Brothers .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.