Polaris Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Polaris is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 114.9% and 2.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 121.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 31.6% in 3 years.
Key information
114.9%
Earnings growth rate
121.89%
EPS growth rate
| Leisure earnings growth | 37.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 2.3% |
| Future return on equity | 31.60% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 05 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 29
PII: Future Returns Will Reflect Quality Gains And Demand Uncertainty Balancing Earnings Power
Analysts have trimmed their consolidated price target for Polaris by about $1 to $66, reflecting slightly higher required returns and softer revenue expectations, partly offset by improved profit margin assumptions and a lower future P/E multiple cited in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Polaris shows a mix of optimism and caution, with analysts recalibrating price targets and ratings as they weigh execution risks, demand signals and ongoing tariff concerns.Seeking Alpha • Apr 20
Polaris: Now Advantaged By Domestic Manufacturing Capacity
Summary Polaris is advantaged by domestic manufacturing capacity, as BRP suddenly withdrew its guidance due to tariff changes. PII's outlook is still volatile due to weak consumer demand and potential tariff regime changes. I estimate PII stock to have 20% upside to a fair value of $69.5. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 14
PII: Weak Demand And Tariffs Will Pressure Future Earnings Power
The analyst price target for Polaris has been reduced by $1.91 to reflect a mix of lower valuation multiples and cautious views on a still weak demand backdrop, even as analysts highlight ongoing business quality improvements and note that product innovation could support share gains when conditions improve. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Polaris reflects a cautious tone, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and flagging risk factors that could keep a lid on valuation until conditions improve.Narrative Update • Mar 31
PII: Future Returns Will Reflect Quality Improvements And Underappreciated Earnings Power
Analysts have trimmed the average price target for Polaris by just over $1, reflecting mixed views as some highlight ongoing quality improvements and potential earnings power, while others point to a weak demand backdrop, tariff overhangs, and a choppy consumer environment. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Polaris reflects a split view, with some analysts focusing on quality improvements and earnings potential, while others emphasize weak demand signals and external headwinds such as tariffs.Narrative Update • Mar 17
PII: Weak Demand And Tariff Overhang Will Constrain Future Earnings Power
Analysts have trimmed the Polaris price target by about $2 to $47.24 as they balance expectations for slightly better margins and steady revenue growth with concerns about a weak demand backdrop, unresolved share capture questions, and ongoing tariff risks. Analyst Commentary Street research on Polaris has turned more mixed, with cautious voices focusing on weak demand, tariff uncertainty, and questions around market share.Narrative Update • Mar 03
PII: Choppy Consumer Backdrop Will Pressure Earnings Power Despite Product Refresh
Analysts have adjusted their Polaris price targets, with our fair value estimate moving from about $47.25 to $49.50. This reflects updated expectations around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions following recent mixed Street research.
Narrative Update • Feb 17
PII: Powersports Recovery And Brand Strength Will Unlock Underappreciated Earnings Power
Analysts have modestly reset their blended $81.00 price target on Polaris, reflecting slightly higher discount-rate and profit-margin assumptions, a marginal adjustment to expected revenue growth, and a lower future P/E multiple informed by recent mixed target moves from RBC Capital, Seaport Research, Roth Capital, and Morgan Stanley. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Polaris shows a split tape, with some firms trimming price targets while others have pushed them higher.Analysis Article • Feb 16
Polaris' (NYSE:PII) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
The board of Polaris Inc. ( NYSE:PII ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $0.68 on the 16th of March...Narrative Update • Feb 03
PII: Outdoor Recreation Demand And Powersports Recovery Will Unlock Undervalued Earnings Power
Narrative Update on Polaris The analyst price target for Polaris has shifted to $81 from $70 as analysts weigh mixed revisions from firms that trimmed targets alongside others that lifted them, citing views on powersports demand, outdoor recreation trends and the company’s longer term earnings power. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Polaris highlight a mixed backdrop, with some firms trimming price targets and others lifting them or starting coverage on a positive footing.Analysis Article • Feb 02
Polaris' (NYSE:PII) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year
Polaris Inc. ( NYSE:PII ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable payment on...Narrative Update • Jan 19
PII: Future Returns Will Reflect Easing Powersports Pressures And Steady Earnings Outlook
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Polaris has been raised by about US$2, with analysts pointing to a slightly higher fair value estimate, modestly adjusted revenue and margin assumptions, and continuing views that the shares are undervalued given the company’s earnings power and easing powersports market pressures. Analyst Commentary Recent research has been broadly constructive on Polaris, with bullish analysts highlighting the company’s earnings potential and the reset in powersports market conditions.Narrative Update • Jan 05
PII: Indian Motorcycle Sale Will Expose On-Road Margin Risks For Shares
Narrative Update Analysts now place Polaris fair value at approximately $47.25, up from $29.00. This reflects updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, supported by recent price target increases following the planned separation and majority sale of the Indian Motorcycle business and expectations for Q3 results that are described as better than originally anticipated.Narrative Update • Dec 15
PII: Future Performance Will Reflect Indian Divestiture Amid Stable Earnings Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Polaris to about $62 per share, reflecting expectations that the planned sale of a majority stake in Indian Motorcycles and better than anticipated Q3 results will enhance margins and earnings power. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the planned sale of a majority stake in Indian Motorcycles as a catalyst for margin expansion, given the onroad segment's gross margins have trailed the company average.Narrative Update • Dec 01
PII: Future Performance Will Reflect Divestiture Amid Balanced Risks And Opportunities
Analysts have increased their price targets for Polaris by significant margins, with new estimates ranging from $54 to $70. They attribute the boosts to better-than-expected third quarter results, positive retail trends, and the company’s plan to sell a majority stake in its Indian Motorcycle division to private equity.Narrative Update • Nov 17
PII: Profitability Should Improve Following Divestiture Amid New Retail Momentum
Narrative Update: Analyst Price Target Increases for Polaris Analysts have raised their average price target for Polaris, increasing it by approximately $0.20 to $65.83. They cite the company's strong Q3 outlook and the strategic divestiture of Indian Motorcycles as key drivers for improved profitability and growth expectations.Narrative Update • Oct 31
PII: Divestiture And Margin Gains Are Expected To Drive Improved Profitability
Analysts have increased their fair value price target for Polaris from $56.73 to $65.64, citing stronger expected profit margins and the positive impact of the Indian Motorcycle divestiture on near-term financial performance. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst adjustments to Polaris’s price targets reflect a mix of optimism and caution surrounding the company’s divestiture of Indian Motorcycles and its evolving business outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 17
Tariff Mitigation And New Product Launches Will Secure Operational Efficiency
Polaris’s analyst price target has increased from $52 to approximately $56.73, as analysts cite improved Q3 performance expectations and the anticipated financial benefits from restructuring its Indian Motorcycle business. Analyst Commentary Recent updates from Street research indicate a shift in sentiment towards Polaris, as analysts react to both stronger operational performance and the company's strategic moves involving its Indian Motorcycle division.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Tariff Mitigation And New Product Launches Will Secure Operational Efficiency
Analysts have increased their fair value price target for Polaris from $49.73 to $52.00. This reflects modest improvements in the company's discount rate, expected revenue growth, and a less severe outlook for industry tariffs, despite mixed retail demand expectations.Narrative Update • Sep 08
Tariff Mitigation And New Product Launches Will Secure Operational Efficiency
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Polaris to $49.73, citing relief from tariff pressures and improved dealer sentiment despite persistent weak retail demand and a cautious outlook for the broader industry. Analyst Commentary Consumer confidence has rebounded from earlier in the year but has yet to translate into a sustained recovery in retail demand.Narrative Update • Aug 06
Recreational Vehicles Expansion Will Temper Overvaluation And Prompt Gains
The upward revision in Polaris’s consensus price target is primarily driven by stronger expectations for revenue growth and improved net profit margins, resulting in a new fair value of $48.55. What's in the News Polaris Off Road unveiled the 2026 RANGER 500, a compact, mid-size utility vehicle targeting the value segment, featuring user-friendly controls, enhanced versatility, and a starting MSRP of $9,999.Analysis Article • Jul 23
The Market Lifts Polaris Inc. (NYSE:PII) Shares 32% But It Can Do More
Despite an already strong run, Polaris Inc. ( NYSE:PII ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 32% in the last...Analysis Article • Jun 28
Why Polaris Inc. (NYSE:PII) Could Be Worth Watching
Polaris Inc. ( NYSE:PII ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price...Analysis Article • May 27
Is Polaris Inc. (NYSE:PII) Trading At A 39% Discount?
Key Insights The projected fair value for Polaris is US$62.32 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Polaris...Analysis Article • Apr 26
Polaris (NYSE:PII) Is Finding It Tricky To Allocate Its Capital
To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications...Analysis Article • Apr 08
Benign Growth For Polaris Inc. (NYSE:PII) Underpins Stock's 26% Plummet
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Polaris Inc. ( NYSE:PII ) share price has dived 26% in the last thirty days...Analysis Article • Mar 24
Is Polaris (NYSE:PII) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Seeking Alpha • Feb 11
Polaris: Ultimate Contrarian Bet That Pays Big Dividends
Summary Polaris presents a contrarian investment opportunity with a historically high 6% dividend yield. It could be nearing a trough with management's focus on cost efficiencies, inventory alignment, and disciplined capital allocation with strong free cash flow expected this year. Polaris maintains a solid investment grade rating and a manageable 3.0x net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, supporting its financial stability. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 03
Polaris (NYSE:PII) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.67
The board of Polaris Inc. ( NYSE:PII ) has announced that the dividend on 17th of March will be increased to $0.67...Seeking Alpha • Jan 31
Polaris Stock More Compelling Than Treasuries
Summary Polaris stock is now attractive due to its lower price, profitability, and safe dividend, despite a tough 2024. The dividend yield of 5.3% is higher than the 10-Year Treasury Note, making Polaris a compelling investment. Polaris has sufficient cash and cash flow to sustain and potentially grow its dividend, ensuring a good risk-adjusted return. I plan to buy PII stock now and increase my position after reviewing the upcoming 10-K, barring any negative surprises. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 7,794 | 248 | 143 | N/A | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | 7,554 | 181 | -42 | 440 | 18 |
| 12/31/2026 | 7,278 | 74 | -165 | 255 | 18 |
| 3/31/2026 | 7,353 | -446 | 161 | 338 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 7,236 | -465 | 558 | 741 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 7,076 | -151 | 581 | 769 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 6,961 | -108 | 417 | 631 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 7,073 | 40 | 169 | 457 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 7,273 | 111 | -56 | 268 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 7,803 | 204 | 255 | 612 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 8,326 | 328 | 225 | 619 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 8,577 | 393 | 306 | 696 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 9,015 | 503 | 513 | 926 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 9,122 | 596 | 346 | 771 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 9,205 | 635 | 520 | 914 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 9,041 | 642 | 337 | 682 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 8,637 | 603 | 202 | 509 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 8,224 | 497 | -33 | 254 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 7,660 | 424 | -252 | 41 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 7,512 | 437 | -105 | 189 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 7,493 | 496 | 11 | 294 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 7,661 | 604 | 225 | 496 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 7,845 | 654 | 670 | 905 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 7,457 | 263 | 934 | 1,146 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 6,362 | 360 | 814 | 1,019 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 6,691 | 25 | 701 | 895 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 6,512 | -53 | 560 | 762 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 6,774 | 270 | 394 | 622 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 6,863 | 324 | N/A | 655 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 6,757 | 316 | N/A | 559 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 6,637 | 324 | N/A | 515 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 6,361 | 328 | N/A | 442 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 6,166 | 335 | N/A | 477 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 5,965 | 275 | N/A | 442 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 5,789 | 262 | N/A | 488 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 5,649 | 231 | N/A | 535 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 5,505 | 172 | N/A | 585 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 5,292 | 204 | N/A | 643 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 5,000 | 154 | N/A | 487 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 4,767 | 163 | N/A | 480 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 4,595 | 213 | N/A | 590 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 4,482 | 261 | N/A | 402 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 4,752 | 384 | N/A | 699 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 4,743 | 414 | N/A | 575 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 4,789 | 455 | N/A | 440 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 4,959 | 480 | N/A | 613 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 4,804 | 466 | N/A | 488 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PII is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: PII is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: PII is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: PII's revenue (2.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PII's revenue (2.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: PII's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (31.6%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 09:56 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Polaris Inc. is covered by 34 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Craig Kennison | Baird |
| David Beckel | Bernstein |
| Tristan Thomas-Martin | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |