NVR, Inc.

NYSE:NVR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$16.5b

NVR Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

NVR's earnings are forecast to decline at 1.9% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 0.01% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 2.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 37.5% in 3 years.

Key information

-1.9%

Earnings growth rate

2.69%

EPS growth rate

Consumer Durables earnings growth7.5%
Revenue growth rate0.01%
Future return on equity37.52%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

New Narrative • May 03

NVR 05-2026

NVR converts the most capital-intensive, most cyclical, most balance-sheet-fragile activity in U.S. industrial business — residential land development — into a software-like compounder with 30% ROIC and net-cash balance sheets. The mechanism is the Lot Purchase Agreement (LPA) model: NVR pays non-refundable deposits of ~10% of finished lot value to third-party developers for the right to take down lots on a quarter-by-quarter basis.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 28

NVR: Fundamental Resilience And Reasonable Valuation Warrant A Buy Amid Market Volatility

Summary NVR, Inc. demonstrates resilience amid soft housing markets, leveraging an asset-light model and East Coast focus for sustained profitability. NVR maintains a robust net income margin of 10.4% in Q1 2026, outperforming peers, despite a 21.4% YoY revenue decline. Valuation metrics (P/S 1.87x, P/B 5.09x) indicate NVR is underpriced, with target prices suggesting upside potential. Issuing a buy rating, I see technical weakness as a buying opportunity, given strong balance sheet and strategic positioning. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jan 01

NVR, Inc.'s (NYSE:NVR) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors

NVR, Inc.'s ( NYSE:NVR ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared...
Analysis Article • Jul 14

We Think NVR (NYSE:NVR) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
Analysis Article • Jun 13

Little Excitement Around NVR, Inc.'s (NYSE:NVR) Earnings

NVR, Inc.'s ( NYSE:NVR ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.8x might make it look like a buy right now compared...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 24

NVR: Valuation Trading At A Premium Despite Macro Headwinds

Summary NVR faces significant macro headwinds, with declining community count, order book, and rising cancellations indicating weak forward sales momentum and pressure on profitability. 1Q25 results show cracks with a modest revenue increase but notable declines in net income, EPS, and gross profit margin due to higher lot costs and pricing pressure. The macro environment, including elevated mortgage rates and inflation, is creating a tough setup, leading to increased cancellations and the need for heavier incentives. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 11

NVR, Inc.: A Rare Opportunity To Buy A Wonderful Company

Summary NVR, Inc. has a unique, low-debt business model that reduces risk during economic downturns, differentiating it from other homebuilders. The company only buys land when there's a confirmed buyer, minimizing financial exposure and capital expenditure. NVR's cost-plus contract model allows it to operate with less capital, enhancing its financial stability and operational efficiency. With consistent net income growth and excellent capital allocation, NVR, Inc. has the potential to outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 04

NVR, Inc.: Potentially Topping Out

Summary Today, we take a look at home builder NVR, Inc., whose shares have surged 600% over the past decade and are up some 25% since early July. However, mortgage rates have moved back up to the seven percent area and the stock seems overbought using some historical valuation metrics. There also has been some notable insider selling in the stock since the company posted Q3 results in late October. Is the stock in danger of “topping out,” or can the rally continue?  An analysis of NVR, Inc. follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 24

High But Declining Rates Set NVR Up For Success

Summary NVR is well-positioned to benefit from high but declining mortgage rates and low housing supply, making it a strong "Buy" despite its higher valuation. Declining but high mortgage rates are expected to boost buyer demand, benefiting NVR as homeowners remain locked into lower rates. With favorable macroeconomic conditions, NVR is likely to continue its strong performance in the medium term. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 04

NVR: An Awesome Compounder That's Run Up Too Far Too Fast

Summary NVR shares have surged 29% year to date, as investor sentiment on the company and homebuilding sector more broadly has shifted. Despite strong performance in the latest quarter, the current valuation appears less attractive due to a slowing housing market and high mortgage rates. NVR's Q2'24 revenue grew 11.6% YoY, with strong new orders and a solid balance sheet, but margins slightly decreased. Trading at 12.4x EV/EBITDA, NVR's premium has widened compared to peers, so I'd suggest waiting for a better entry point for new buyers of the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 21

NVR Continues To Capitalize On Housing Shortage And High Mortgage Rates

Summary Although NVR stock slightly underperformed the broader market since my initial coverage, business drivers remain strong. Factors such as high mortgage rates, housing shortage, and potential interest rate cuts contribute to a favorable environment for NVR's medium-term performance. I believe the stock is undervalued compared to the company's potential, leading to the reiteration of my "Buy" rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 11

Revisiting NVR: Still An Attractive Investment

Summary NVR, one of the biggest homebuilders in the U.S., has outperformed the market since my initial coverage and I believe it should be priced higher. The U.S. economy remains strong, with low unemployment and lower-than-expected inflation, supporting the housing market. Trends such as housing shortage and high mortgage rates discouraging homeowners from selling continue to drive demand for the company. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 23

NVR: A Deep Dive Into This Phenomenal Homebuilder

Summary NVR is the largest homebuilder on the US East Coast and has consistently generated profit every year since 1993. The company has outperformed its peers with a compounded annual growth rate of over 30% and is built to thrive in downturns. Studying NVR will provide insights into market leaders in adjacent markets and help understand the opportunities and challenges in the homebuilding industry. NVR scores 12/20 in my Sleep Well Investment scorecard and is fairly valued, but in the case of a housing downturn, I won't hesitate to start a position. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 03

NVR: Controlled Risk With Potential Upside

Summary NVR's unique business model benefits from the upside in an inflationary environment while protecting the downside in a recession. The company is enjoying some tailwinds from a shortage in the housing market in the U.S. Through the whole cycle, NVR's average return on capital employed is at 24% and is improving. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:NVR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20279,8681,1271,0281,0625
12/31/20269,2641,0429961,2414
3/31/20269,9171,2391,2311,253N/A
12/31/202510,4381,3401,0971,121N/A
9/30/202510,5831,4331,2921,319N/A
6/30/202510,7181,5201,2091,238N/A
3/31/202510,7431,5871,4081,436N/A
12/31/202410,6871,6821,3451,374N/A
9/30/202410,2811,6351,2031,233N/A
6/30/202410,1241,6381,5041,533N/A
3/31/20249,8471,6421,2981,329N/A
12/31/20239,6831,5921,4731,498N/A
9/30/20239,9421,6361,7941,819N/A
6/30/202310,1191,6151,7461,767N/A
3/31/202310,4081,6441,8591,876N/A
12/31/202210,5751,7261,8521,870N/A
9/30/202210,0721,6051,2951,313N/A
6/30/20229,6811,5261,1491,169N/A
3/31/20229,3031,4141,2051,223N/A
12/31/20218,9661,2371,2251,242N/A
9/30/20219,0861,2071,3121,328N/A
6/30/20218,6801,1321,0611,076N/A
3/31/20218,0189741,1691,185N/A
12/31/20207,563901909925N/A
9/30/20207,209852918936N/A
6/30/20207,136820914935N/A
3/31/20207,320866686707N/A
12/31/20197,426879N/A867N/A
9/30/20197,428855N/A741N/A
6/30/20197,366827N/A856N/A
3/31/20197,349820N/A873N/A
12/31/20187,187797N/A723N/A
9/30/20187,006690N/A727N/A
6/30/20186,819656N/A562N/A
3/31/20186,574601N/A540N/A
12/31/20176,320538N/A570N/A
9/30/20176,255564N/A631N/A
6/30/20176,123519N/A564N/A
3/31/20175,966463N/A546N/A
12/31/20165,833425N/A393N/A
9/30/20165,635408N/A290N/A
6/30/20165,500407N/A256N/A
3/31/20165,355409N/A165N/A
12/31/20155,168383N/A227N/A
9/30/20154,941348N/A242N/A
6/30/20154,741322N/A161N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NVR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.9% per year).

Earnings vs Market: NVR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NVR's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NVR's revenue (0.01% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NVR's revenue (0.01% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NVR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (37.5%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 14:43
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

NVR, Inc. is covered by 19 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Rafe JadrosichBofA Global Research
Ryan GilbertBTIG
Peter MartinCitizens JMP Securities, LLC