As Mohawk Industries (NYSE:MHK) advances 7.8% this past week, investors may now be noticing the company's five-year earnings growth

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 16, 2022
NYSE:MHK
Source: Shutterstock

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term Mohawk Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MHK) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 40% over a half decade. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 24% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 22% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 12% in the same timeframe.

While the last five years has been tough for Mohawk Industries shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

View our latest analysis for Mohawk Industries

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Mohawk Industries actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 4.8% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 2.9% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:MHK Earnings and Revenue Growth March 16th 2022

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 1.3% in the twelve months, Mohawk Industries shareholders did even worse, losing 24%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Mohawk Industries that you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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