Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) Just Reported Earnings, And Analysts Cut Their Target Price

It's been a mediocre week for Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$0.81 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Results overall weren't great; even though revenues of US$125m beat expectations by 13%, statutory losses ballooned to US$0.67 per share, substantially worse than the analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering Traeger, is for revenues of US$543.4m in 2026. This implies a noticeable 6.8% reduction in Traeger's revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 73% to US$0.20. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$559.0m and losses of US$0.18 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Traeger after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

View our latest analysis for Traeger

The average price target fell 11% to US$1.56, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Traeger's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Traeger at US$3.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would also point out that the forecast 5.5% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 4.7% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Traeger to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Traeger. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Traeger's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Traeger analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Traeger is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.