Serco Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SECC.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SECC.F ($2) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($1.75)

Is SECC.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SECC.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SECC.F ($2) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($1.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SECC.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SECC.F?

Key metric: As SECC.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SECC.F. This is calculated by dividing SECC.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SECC.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	11.5x
Earnings	UK£139.00m
Market Cap	UK£1.60b

SECC.F key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.7x
PEG Ratio	3.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SECC.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SECC.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	43.7x
BV BrightView Holdings	83x	56.8%	US$1.6b
ARIS Aris Water Solutions	33.7x	40.2%	US$1.6b
ABM ABM Industries	22.9x	19.9%	US$3.6b
SP SP Plus	35.3x	n/a	US$1.1b
SECC.F Serco Group	11.5x	3.7%	US$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SECC.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the peer average (43.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SECC.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Commercial Services Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
SGTM Sustainable Green Team	3.9x	n/a	US$43.63m
CDTG CDT Environmental Technology Investment Holdings	4.6x	n/a	US$34.24m
PGTK Pacific Green Technologies	3.9x	n/a	US$31.29m
OMEX Odyssey Marine Exploration	0.7x	n/a	US$8.54m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SECC.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the US Commercial Services industry average (32.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SECC.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SECC.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	11.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SECC.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SECC.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$2.00	US$2.80 +39.9%	13.0%	US$3.58	US$2.33	n/a	12
Nov ’25	n/a	US$2.94 0%	10.4%	US$3.64	US$2.56	n/a	12
Oct ’25	US$2.46	US$2.94 +19.4%	10.4%	US$3.64	US$2.56	n/a	12
Sep ’25	n/a	US$2.94 0%	10.4%	US$3.64	US$2.56	n/a	12
Aug ’25	n/a	US$2.98 0%	10.6%	US$3.65	US$2.58	n/a	11
Jul ’25	US$2.32	US$2.89 +24.6%	11.1%	US$3.58	US$2.53	n/a	11
Jun ’25	n/a	US$2.80 0%	9.4%	US$3.33	US$2.50	n/a	11
May ’25	n/a	US$2.81 0%	9.4%	US$3.34	US$2.51	n/a	11
Apr ’25	n/a	US$2.84 0%	9.6%	US$3.35	US$2.52	n/a	10
Mar ’25	n/a	US$2.89 0%	15.3%	US$4.09	US$2.52	n/a	11
Feb ’25	US$2.14	US$2.83 +32.1%	17.4%	US$4.12	US$2.35	n/a	11
Jan ’25	n/a	US$2.83 0%	17.4%	US$4.12	US$2.35	n/a	11
Dec ’24	n/a	US$2.78 0%	17.8%	US$4.08	US$2.33	n/a	11
Nov ’24	US$1.68	US$2.78 +65.2%	17.8%	US$4.08	US$2.33	n/a	11
Oct ’24	US$1.82	US$2.78 +52.7%	17.8%	US$4.08	US$2.33	US$2.46	11
Sep ’24	US$1.90	US$2.78 +46.3%	17.8%	US$4.08	US$2.33	n/a	11
Aug ’24	US$1.98	US$2.68 +35.4%	10.2%	US$3.27	US$2.38	n/a	11
Jul ’24	US$1.79	US$2.58 +44.1%	8.0%	US$2.92	US$2.22	US$2.32	11
Jun ’24	US$1.82	US$2.39 +31.3%	7.2%	US$2.74	US$2.09	n/a	11
May ’24	n/a	US$2.39 0%	7.2%	US$2.74	US$2.09	n/a	11
Apr ’24	n/a	US$2.39 0%	7.2%	US$2.74	US$2.09	n/a	11
Mar ’24	US$1.93	US$2.43 +25.7%	7.7%	US$2.76	US$2.10	n/a	11
Feb ’24	n/a	US$2.49 0%	7.5%	US$2.76	US$2.16	US$2.14	10
Jan ’24	n/a	US$2.47 0%	6.8%	US$2.73	US$2.25	n/a	10
Dec ’23	US$1.99	US$2.42 +21.9%	9.7%	US$3.02	US$2.17	n/a	10
Nov ’23	n/a	US$2.30 0%	9.6%	US$2.88	US$2.06	US$1.68	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.