Waste Management (WM): Evaluating Valuation Following Analyst Upgrade and New Long-Term Cash Flow Outlook

Waste Management (WM) is back in the spotlight after an analyst upgrade to “Outperform.” This move follows mixed third-quarter earnings and an encouraging free cash flow forecast for 2026. Investors are watching closely as sentiment shifts.

See our latest analysis for Waste Management.

Over the last year, Waste Management’s share price has slipped 8.1% on a total shareholder return basis, reflecting mixed quarterly results and some short-term uncertainty. Still, momentum appears to be stabilizing as investments in sustainability and tuck-in acquisitions hint at renewed growth potential for the longer term.

If you're curious to see what else is building momentum, consider broadening your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the stock still trading at a discount to analyst targets, but after a stretch of mixed results, investors are left to consider whether Waste Management is an undervalued opportunity or if future growth is already priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 19.1% Undervalued

Waste Management's latest closing price sits well below what the most popular narrative considers fair value, suggesting hidden upside in analyst assumptions. This valuation hinges on expected improvements in profitability, strategic investments, and long-term revenue growth.

The implementation of technology to supplement the workforce and optimize cost structures is expected to be a significant differentiator for Waste Management. This could lead to improved net margins. The company's strategic investments in sustainability, particularly in the areas of recycling and renewable energy, are showing strong, high-return growth. These efforts may drive future revenue increases.

Read the complete narrative.

Want an inside look at how bullish forecasts are driving this valuation? Discover which profitability boosters and future revenue pillars analysts are betting on to unlock this premium price. See what they believe will take Waste Management to new highs, and which numbers underpin this outlook.

Result: Fair Value of $246.64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, challenges such as volatile recycling prices and integration risks from new acquisitions could quickly impact profitability and shift analyst expectations for Waste Management.

Find out about the key risks to this Waste Management narrative.

Build Your Own Waste Management Narrative

If you want to test your own assumptions or prefer a hands-on approach, you can shape your personal Waste Management story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Waste Management research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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