Earnings Beat: HNI Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

HNI Corporation (NYSE:HNI) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.2% to hit US$667m. HNI reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$1.02, which was a notable 20% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for HNI from five analysts is for revenues of US$2.64b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 2.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.1% to US$3.31. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.35 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for HNI

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$64.00, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on HNI, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$70.00 and the most bearish at US$60.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that HNI is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that HNI's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than HNI.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$64.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HNI going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for HNI that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.