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GFL Environmental Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of GFLU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GFLU ($70.3) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($80.72)

Is GFLU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Future Cash Flow Value
Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of GFLU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: GFLU ($70.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($80.72)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: GFLU is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFLU?

Key metric: As GFLU is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GFLU. This is calculated by dividing GFLU's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GFLU's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	2.2x
Sales	CA$6.76b
Market Cap	CA$15.17b

GFLU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GFLU's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GFLU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.8x
CLH Clean Harbors	2.5x	4.28%	US$15.1b
TTEK Tetra Tech	2x	1.58%	US$9.5b
CWST Casella Waste Systems	3.2x	7.62%	US$6.1b
ROL Rollins	7.7x	7.82%	US$29.5b
GFLU GFL Environmental	2.2x	8.00%	US$15.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GFLU is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GFLU's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Commercial Services Industry?

32 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
ABM ABM Industries	0.3x	3.82%	US$2.74b
MLKN MillerKnoll	0.4x	5.59%	US$1.52b
VSTS Vestis	0.4x	0.77%	US$1.05b
ACCO ACCO Brands	0.2x	2.82%	US$380.37m

32 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GFLU is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the US Commercial Services industry average (1.2x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFLU's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFLU PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	2.2x
Fair PS Ratio	1.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GFLU is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2023/03/16 13:53
End of Day Share Price	2023/03/14 00:00
Earnings	2022/12/31
Annual Earnings	2022/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Christopher Murray	ATB Cormark
William Grippin	Barclays
Moses Sutton	Barclays