Grafton Group plc

OTCPK:GROU.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.4b

Grafton Group Valuation

Is GROU.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of GROU.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: GROU.F ($12.74) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($14.37)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: GROU.F is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GROU.F?

Key metric: As GROU.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GROU.F. This is calculated by dividing GROU.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GROU.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.7x
EarningsUK£133.40m
Market CapUK£1.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GROU.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GROU.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.5x
DNOW DNOW
33.5x26.83%US$3.0b
DXPE DXP Enterprises
26.9x17.49%US$2.2b
BCC Boise Cascade
17.5x11.61%US$3.3b
MGRC McGrath RentCorp
20.2x9.27%US$3.0b
GROU.F Grafton Group
13.7x3.47%US$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GROU.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the peer average (23.8x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GROU.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TLIH Ten-League International Holdings
3.5xn/aUS$9.98m
BYU BAIYU Holdings
0.8xn/aUS$8.94m
No more companies available in this PE range
GROU.F 13.7xIndustry Avg. 24.7xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GROU.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GROU.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GROU.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GROU.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GROU.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$15.98
0%
5.10%US$17.45US$14.85n/a10
Jan ’27n/a
US$15.53
0%
4.97%US$16.88US$14.50n/a10
Dec ’26n/a
US$15.53
0%
4.97%US$16.88US$14.50n/a10
Nov ’26n/a
US$15.42
0%
4.97%US$16.75US$14.38n/a10
Oct ’26n/a
US$15.81
0%
5.08%US$17.13US$14.71n/a10
Sep ’26n/a
US$15.96
0%
4.66%US$17.23US$14.87n/a10
Aug ’26n/a
US$15.84
0%
4.66%US$17.10US$14.76n/a10
Jul ’26n/a
US$15.77
0%
4.55%US$16.91US$14.59n/a10
Jun ’26n/a
US$15.77
0%
4.55%US$16.91US$14.59n/a10
May ’26n/a
US$15.73
0%
4.64%US$16.93US$14.61n/a10
Apr ’26n/a
US$15.36
0%
4.64%US$16.53US$14.26n/a10
Mar ’26n/a
US$14.83
0%
4.57%US$16.04US$13.84n/a10
Feb ’26n/a
US$14.71
0%
4.57%US$15.92US$13.73n/a10
Jan ’26n/a
US$15.38
0%
3.32%US$16.20US$14.42n/a10
Dec ’25n/a
US$15.35
0%
3.32%US$16.17US$14.39n/a10
Nov ’25n/a
US$15.51
0%
2.97%US$16.47US$14.67n/a9
Oct ’25n/a
US$15.54
0%
2.79%US$16.20US$14.69n/a9
Sep ’25n/a
US$15.41
0%
2.92%US$16.15US$14.64n/a9
Aug ’25n/a
US$14.64
0%
5.69%US$15.87US$12.84n/a9
Jul ’25n/a
US$14.52
0%
5.69%US$15.73US$12.73n/a9
Jun ’25n/a
US$14.44
0%
6.50%US$16.22US$12.65n/a10
May ’25n/a
US$14.23
0%
6.22%US$16.02US$12.50n/a10
Apr ’25US$12.35
US$14.56
+17.93%
5.88%US$16.37US$13.02n/a10
Mar ’25n/a
US$13.43
0%
9.62%US$16.34US$11.86n/a10
Feb ’25US$12.09
US$13.41
+10.93%
9.90%US$16.45US$11.94n/a9
US$15.55
Fair Value
18.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/06 12:44
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/08 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Grafton Group plc is covered by 18 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harry GoadBerenberg
Aynsley LamminCanaccord Genuity
Ami GallaCitigroup Inc