Results: Wabash National Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Wabash National Corporation (NYSE:WNC) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to US$21.08 in the past week. Revenues US$551m disappointed slightly, at7.4% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of US$0.64 coming in 15% above what was anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Wabash National

After the latest results, the consensus from Wabash National's twin analysts is for revenues of US$2.03b in 2024, which would reflect a definite 12% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 57% to US$1.51 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.20b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.09 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$25.50, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Wabash National's valuation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 22% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Wabash National's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Wabash National. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Wabash National. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Wabash National going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Wabash National (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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