Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:SPCE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$179.3m

Virgin Galactic Holdings Valuation

Is SPCE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPCE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPCE ($6.21) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($112.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPCE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPCE?

Key metric: As SPCE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SPCE. This is calculated by dividing SPCE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SPCE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio19x
SalesUS$9.42m
Market CapUS$179.32m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SPCE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SPCE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.1x
AZ A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions
27.9xn/aUS$184.8m
SATL Satellogic
21.8xn/aUS$299.7m
AERG Applied Energetics
55.7xn/aUS$145.4m
ISSC Innovative Solutions and Support
3.1x78.8%US$146.6m
SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings
19x69.9%US$179.3m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SPCE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19x) compared to the peer average (27.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SPCE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VVX V2X
0.4x4.8%US$1.50b
LLAP Terran Orbital
0.4x29.5%US$51.22m
SIF SIFCO Industries
0.2xn/aUS$18.54m
AIRI Air Industries Group
0.3x1.8%US$13.43m
SPCE 19.0xIndustry Avg. 2.4xNo. of Companies14PS0246810+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SPCE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (19x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (2.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPCE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPCE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio19x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SPCE's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPCE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$6.21
US$13.57
+118.5%
90.5%US$41.00US$3.00n/a7
Dec ’25US$7.30
US$13.57
+85.9%
90.5%US$41.00US$3.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$6.61
US$12.67
+91.6%
123.0%US$47.00US$1.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$5.84
US$13.67
+134.0%
130.2%US$53.00US$1.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$6.69
US$18.67
+179.0%
100.9%US$53.00US$1.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$6.40
US$39.83
+522.4%
62.5%US$80.00US$8.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$7.93
US$43.67
+450.7%
54.5%US$80.00US$15.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$17.29
US$46.00
+166.0%
49.5%US$80.00US$15.00n/a7
May ’25US$18.55
US$53.13
+186.4%
45.9%US$100.00US$20.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$28.60
US$55.00
+92.3%
40.4%US$100.00US$35.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$33.80
US$55.00
+62.7%
40.4%US$100.00US$35.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$35.80
US$58.75
+64.1%
39.2%US$100.00US$35.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$49.00
US$53.75
+9.7%
48.9%US$100.00US$20.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$46.80
US$53.75
+14.9%
48.9%US$100.00US$20.00US$7.308
Nov ’24US$29.80
US$87.50
+193.6%
48.1%US$160.00US$20.00US$6.618
Oct ’24US$36.00
US$88.89
+146.9%
39.6%US$160.00US$60.00US$5.849
Sep ’24US$51.60
US$88.89
+72.3%
39.6%US$160.00US$60.00US$6.699
Aug ’24US$82.80
US$88.78
+7.2%
40.3%US$160.00US$60.00US$6.409
Jul ’24US$77.60
US$88.78
+14.4%
40.3%US$160.00US$60.00US$7.939
Jun ’24US$75.00
US$88.78
+18.4%
40.3%US$160.00US$60.00US$17.299
May ’24US$71.40
US$90.00
+26.1%
48.0%US$180.00US$50.00US$18.559
Apr ’24US$81.00
US$97.00
+19.8%
41.8%US$180.00US$50.00US$28.6010
Mar ’24US$94.60
US$100.00
+5.7%
37.9%US$180.00US$60.00US$33.8010
Feb ’24US$112.40
US$100.00
-11.0%
45.1%US$220.00US$60.00US$35.8011
Jan ’24US$69.60
US$118.00
+69.5%
50.5%US$240.00US$60.00US$49.0010
Dec ’23US$104.00
US$118.00
+13.5%
50.5%US$240.00US$60.00US$46.8010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 04:38
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ronald EpsteinBofA Global Research
Kenneth HerbertCanaccord Genuity
Keith SnyderCFRA Equity Research