US$15.06: That's What Analysts Think Redwire Corporation (NYSE:RDW) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Redwire Corporation (NYSE:RDW), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Statutory earnings fell substantially short of expectations, with revenues of US$103m missing forecasts by 22%. Losses exploded, with a per-share loss of US$0.29 some 93% below prior forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Redwire after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Redwire's nine analysts is for revenues of US$566.0m in 2026. This reflects a huge 91% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 86% to US$0.23. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$589.2m and US$0.28 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a considerable decrease in losses per share in particular.

View our latest analysis for Redwire

The consensus price target fell 15% to US$15.06, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Redwire, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$26.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Redwire's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 68% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 27% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Redwire to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also downgraded Redwire's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Redwire's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Redwire going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Redwire (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.