Oshkosh (OSK): Valuation in Focus After 2025 Guidance Cut and Flat Quarterly Results

Oshkosh (OSK) updated its 2025 guidance, signaling lower revenue projections as the company anticipates reduced sales in its Transport and Access segments. This development comes alongside the release of their recent quarterly earnings.

See our latest analysis for Oshkosh.

While Oshkosh’s revised outlook spurred a brief dip in its share price, the stock is still up nearly 30% year-to-date. Total shareholder return has climbed 9.8% over the last year and an impressive 66% over five years. This suggests momentum has been building, even as investors weigh recent guidance cuts and a fresh dividend announcement.

If recent shifts in Oshkosh’s outlook have you curious about what else is trending, now is a great time to broaden your search and discover See the full list for free.

This leaves investors facing a familiar dilemma. With Oshkosh shares rallying strongly but renewed guidance weighing on future estimates, is there hidden value waiting to be tapped or has the market already factored in all the growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.7% Undervalued

Oshkosh’s widely followed narrative pins a fair value of $153.08 per share, well above the last close at $121.46. That gap highlights investor optimism about future earnings momentum and margin expansion, setting the stage for a deeper look at the growth story experts are tracking most closely.

Oshkosh's accelerating innovation in electric, hybrid, and autonomous vehicle technologies positions the company to win incremental business and command higher margins as customers shift toward sustainability and digital solutions. Recent multi-year government contract wins (FMTV, FHTV, and the USPS NGDV program) provide improved pricing, recurring high-visibility revenue, and create a stable foundation for further earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why this narrative is so bullish? The main factors are smart bets on tech upgrades and high-stakes government contracts. Want to know which key assumptions are driving the next stage of Oshkosh’s story? Dive in and uncover the numbers that challenge conventional valuation thinking.

Result: Fair Value of $153.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent tariffs and heavy reliance on government contracts could quickly swing the outlook. These factors may act as catalysts for unexpected swings in Oshkosh’s fortunes.

Find out about the key risks to this Oshkosh narrative.

Build Your Own Oshkosh Narrative

If the expert outlook does not match your perspective, you can analyze the latest figures and craft a personalized take in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Oshkosh research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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