The Manitowoc Company, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (NYSE:MTW), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$495m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 38% to hit US$0.12 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Manitowoc Company

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Manitowoc Company are now predicting revenues of US$2.29b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 61% to US$1.23. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.30b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.31 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$15.63, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Manitowoc Company, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$12.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Manitowoc Company's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.6% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Manitowoc Company's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Manitowoc Company. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Manitowoc Company. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Manitowoc Company analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Manitowoc Company is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.