GMS Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, GMS Inc. (NYSE:GMS) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$1.4b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 25%, coming in at just US$1.42 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on GMS after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for GMS

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering GMS are now predicting revenues of US$5.68b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 7.1% to US$5.83 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.83b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.13 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$91.78 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic GMS analyst has a price target of US$99.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$81.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the GMS' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that GMS' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that GMS is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for GMS. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$91.78, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for GMS going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for GMS that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.