Graham Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Graham is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 30.5% and 13.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 28.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 13.5% in 3 years.
Key information
30.5%
Earnings growth rate
28.68%
EPS growth rate
| Machinery earnings growth | 16.3% |
| Revenue growth rate | 13.6% |
| Future return on equity | 13.45% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 05 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 27
GHM: Fiscal 2026 Guidance And Mixed Ratings Will Shape Repricing Prospects
Analysts have raised their price target on Graham from $90.60 to $100.25, citing recent bullish initiation and upgrade activity that they say reflects increasing confidence in the company’s outlook and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Graham has been mixed, with both bullish and bearish analysts reassessing their views in a short time frame.Narrative Update • Apr 11
GHM: Fiscal 2026 Guidance And Mixed Ratings Will Shape Re Rating Potential
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Graham slightly higher to $90.60, reflecting a fresh round of bullish and mixed views in recent research updates that balance new initiations and a recent downgrade. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight Graham's current valuation as appealing relative to their expectations for the business, which supports the higher average price target around $90.60.Analysis Article • Apr 06
Should You Be Adding Graham (NYSE:GHM) To Your Watchlist Today?
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Narrative Update • Mar 27
GHM: Fiscal 2026 Guidance Delivery Will Drive Re Rating Potential
Analysts have lifted their average price target on Graham from $88.25 to $90.60, citing recent initiations and rating changes that reflect updated views on fair value, growth assumptions, and P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Graham highlights a mix of optimism and caution, which is feeding directly into how analysts think about fair value, execution risk, and the appropriate P/E range.Narrative Update • Mar 11
GHM: Steady Fair Value Will Depend On Fiscal 2026 Guidance Delivery
Analysts have nudged their price target on Graham slightly higher to $88.25, reflecting small tweaks to discount rate and forward P/E assumptions after recent mixed research updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the latest upgrade as support for the current P/E framework, suggesting that the stock can justify a valuation closer to the refreshed $88.25 target when execution stays on plan.Seeking Alpha • Feb 25
Graham's Rapid Growth Doesn't Justify These Trading Levels (Downgrade)
Summary Graham Corporation has delivered exceptional growth, with shares up 184.4% versus 29% for the S&P 500 since the prior bullish call. GHM's defense sector dominance, sole-sourced contracts, and expanding backlog underpin long-term revenue stability and growth prospects. Recent acquisitions, including FlackTek, and facility investments have driven revenue and EBITDA guidance higher for FY2026. Despite operational strength, GHM is now significantly overvalued on both absolute and relative multiples, warranting a downgrade to a soft "Sell." Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Feb 25
GHM: Stable Fair Value Will Reflect Revised Guidance And Execution Debates
Analysts have kept their average price target for Graham steady at $88.25. This reflects only marginal tweaks to their discount rate and long term assumptions about growth, margins and future P/E, rather than a change in overall conviction.Analysis Article • Feb 11
Graham Corporation's (NYSE:GHM) 26% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors
Despite an already strong run, Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the...Narrative Update • Feb 11
GHM: Revised Guidance And Mixed Research Will Shape Execution Risk Outlook
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Graham from $75.50 to $88.25, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels based on the latest research flow, which has included both upgrades and downgrades. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Graham has included both an upgrade and a downgrade in quick succession.Narrative Update • Jan 27
GHM: Strong Order Visibility And Margins Will Confront Second Half Slowdown Risks
Analysts have raised their price target for Graham to about $75.50 from roughly $69.25, citing what they describe as strong recent results, solid order visibility and firm margin trends, even as they expect order activity to cool slightly in the second half. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Graham highlights a mix of optimism and caution, with attention on how recent performance and order trends could feed through to future results and valuation.Narrative Update • Jan 12
GHM: Order Visibility And Margins Support Space Momentum But Signal Share Consolidation Potential
Narrative Update on Graham Analysts have lifted their blended price target on Graham to $71 from $67, citing what they describe as another strong quarter, solid order visibility, and ongoing margin expansion. They also flag recent share gains and the potential for a consolidation period.Analysis Article • Dec 24
Market Participants Recognise Graham Corporation's (NYSE:GHM) Earnings Pushing Shares 29% Higher
Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 29% gain in the last month alone...Narrative Update • Dec 19
GHM: Strong Order Visibility And Margin Expansion Will Support Further Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Graham from $67.00 to $71.00, citing another strong quarter, solid visibility into future orders, and ongoing margin expansion. They also note the potential for near term consolidation after the stock's sharp run up.Analysis Article • Dec 10
Here's Why Graham (NYSE:GHM) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Narrative Update • Dec 05
GHM: Margin Expansion And Strong Order Visibility Will Drive Continued Outperformance
Analysts have nudged their price target on Graham slightly higher to about $71, up roughly $4. This reflects confidence in continued strong visibility and margin expansion, even as they anticipate a period of share price consolidation after substantial recent gains.Narrative Update • Nov 21
GHM: Margin Expansion And Business Momentum Will Drive Continued Outperformance
Graham's analyst price target has been increased from $64.50 to $69.25. This change reflects analysts' confidence in the company's strong margin expansion and ongoing business visibility, even though slower revenue growth is expected ahead.Analysis Article • Nov 15
Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Graham's (NYSE:GHM) Earnings
Last week's profit announcement from Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...Narrative Update • Nov 05
GHM: Shares Will Likely Consolidate After Strong 40% Rally This Year
Narrative Update on Analyst Price Target for Graham Analysts have lowered their price target for Graham by $12.50 to $52.00, citing a significant rally in the shares and expectations for a potential period of consolidation following recent gains. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates reflect a mix of optimism regarding Graham's strong performance, alongside caution given the stock's rapid appreciation over the past year.Narrative Update • Oct 21
Analysts Raise Graham Price Target as Share Gains Drive Up Valuation and Cautious Optimism
Analysts have raised their price target for Graham from $59.50 to $64.50, citing the company's strong share price appreciation and expectations for a period of consolidation following recent gains. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst assessments reflect a nuanced view of Graham's current position in the market, with both optimism for continued strength and caution regarding the pace of gains.Analysis Article • Oct 18
Graham Corporation's (NYSE:GHM) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price
Graham Corporation's ( NYSE:GHM ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 47.3x might make it look like a strong sell...Analysis Article • Sep 17
What Does Graham Corporation's (NYSE:GHM) Share Price Indicate?
Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of...Analysis Article • Aug 08
Earnings Beat: Graham Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
NYSE:GHM 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Graham's Fair Values from the Community and select yours It's been a...Analysis Article • Jun 24
Graham Corporation's (NYSE:GHM) 32% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 32% gain in the last month alone...Analysis Article • May 09
Graham Corporation (NYSE:GHM) Looks Just Right With A 32% Price Jump
Those holding Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 32% in the...Analysis Article • Mar 31
Does Graham (NYSE:GHM) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Analysis Article • Feb 22
Graham Corporation's (NYSE:GHM) 29% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings
Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a...Seeking Alpha • Jan 08
Graham Corporation: Some Encouraging Themes, But Outsized Gains Maybe Capped
Summary GHM has delivered outstanding returns of 125% over the past year, outperforming its peers from the Russell 2000 by 6x, and other industrial stocks by 8x (on average). GHM's backlog continues to maintain 30% annual growth, while its growing focus on the defense and navy portfolio provides strong revenue visibility. Margin progression and cash flow generation have been hallmarks, although there could be question marks over the latter as CAPEX commitments are set to lift. P/E valuations are now double the long-term average, but GHM offers sturdy enough earnings growth to help offset that. GHM no longer appeals as a mean-reversion bet within the Russell 2000 index, while the price action on the long-term charts looks stretched. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 27
Why Graham Corporation's Stock Could Surge In 2025
Summary I expect Graham’s stock to rise in 2025, with potential interest rate cuts likely to restart big defense projects. Despite high interest rates, the company managed to maintain strong sales growth in defense projects, driven by the Mark 48 torpedo and submarine programs. Graham's debt-free status, with $21.6 million in cash reserves and a $35 million credit line, provides plenty of flexibility to handle any delays or cost overruns at the Batavia facility. While the company relies heavily on defense contracts and saw a recent drop in aftermarket sales, I believe the growth upside in the next year makes Graham a Strong Buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 24
Expanding Defense Contracts And Green Tech Forge Path To Robust Revenue Growth
Expansion in defense business and new facility construction aim to increase revenue stability and production efficiency, meeting U.S. Navy demands.Seeking Alpha • Aug 13
Defense Contractor Graham Corporation Rises On Robust Earnings
Summary Graham Corporation receives Strong Buy ratings from Seeking Alpha, the Quant system, and Wall Street analysts. Fiscal 2025 is expected to see a 76% increase in earnings per share and the analyst has a one-year target price of $35.75. The company has successfully diversified its business through strategic acquisitions, leading to strong growth prospects and financial performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jul 17
Here's Why We Think Graham (NYSE:GHM) Is Well Worth Watching
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Jun 14
We Think Graham's (NYSE:GHM) Robust Earnings Are Conservative
Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) recently posted some strong earnings, and the market responded positively. Our analysis...Seeking Alpha • May 18
Graham Corporation: After A Fantastic Ride Higher, It's Time To Step Back (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Graham Corporation has seen a surge in its stock price, outperforming the S&P 500 significantly since late last year. The company has shown continued revenue growth, improving cash flows, and backlog expansion, indicating future revenue growth. Despite optimism about the company's long-term prospects, the recent surge in stock price warrants a downgrade to a 'hold' rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 28
Best Defense Stock: Graham Corporation Ready For Take Off (SA Quant)
Summary War and geopolitical challenges have created greater demand for defense and mission-critical technologies – potential tailwinds for industrial and diversified conglomerate Graham Corporation. Global defense spending in 2023 reached a record $2.2T. The U.S. Navy is Graham Corporation’s largest customer, which drove a record $400M backlog and $123.3M repeat orders for Q3 2023. For FY24, the U.S. Navy/Marines have been allocated a total budget of $171.17B by the Department of Defense, which has awarded the Navy +$18B (as of 3/12/24). Graham has a solid Quant Rating and strong growth and momentum, +100% in the past year vs. the Industrial Sector (XLI) +28% vs. Aerospace & Defense (XAR) +22%. The Quant Team interviewed Graham’s executive team for insights into how this top quant-rated small-cap stock could be a more lucrative portfolio investment than other big-name aerospace and defense companies. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 15
Investors Still Aren't Entirely Convinced By Graham Corporation's (NYSE:GHM) Revenues Despite 27% Price Jump
Despite an already strong run, Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the...Seeking Alpha • Dec 20
Graham Corporation: A Solid Prospect On Improved Results And Attractive Growth Potential
Summary Graham Corporation, a producer of mission-critical fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies, is a small company with potential for investors. The company has shown impressive revenue growth in recent years, driven by acquisitions and organic growth. With a positive outlook for the future, including expected revenue of over $200 million by 2027, Graham Corporation stock is a solid investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 13
Graham's (NYSE:GHM) Strong Earnings Are Of Good Quality
Graham Corporation ( NYSE:GHM ) just reported healthy earnings but the stock price didn't move much. Investors are...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2028 | 314 | 26 | 20 | 41 | 2 |
| 3/31/2027 | 281 | 22 | 14 | 34 | 5 |
| 3/31/2026 | 238 | 14 | 5 | 23 | 5 |
| 12/31/2025 | 238 | 15 | -6 | 13 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 228 | 14 | -11 | 13 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 215 | 14 | -10 | 13 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 210 | 12 | 5 | 24 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 200 | 9 | 19 | 37 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 196 | 8 | 26 | 39 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 188 | 5 | 18 | 28 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 186 | 5 | 19 | 28 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 179 | 3 | 18 | 24 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 176 | 3 | 20 | 26 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 169 | 2 | 18 | 23 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 157 | 0 | 10 | 14 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 154 | -1 | 18 | 21 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 143 | -5 | 4 | 6 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 139 | -5 | 2 | 4 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 123 | -9 | -5 | -2 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 109 | -7 | -20 | -17 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 107 | -2 | -11 | -8 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 101 | 1 | -7 | -4 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 97 | 2 | -4 | -2 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 95 | 3 | 4 | 6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 93 | 2 | -2 | 1 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 87 | 0 | -1 | 2 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 91 | 2 | -1 | 1 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 91 | -3 | -7 | -5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 83 | -3 | N/A | 1 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 83 | -3 | N/A | 3 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 92 | 0 | N/A | 8 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 90 | 5 | N/A | 13 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 90 | -7 | N/A | 13 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 86 | -8 | N/A | 6 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 78 | -10 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 81 | -9 | N/A | 6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 86 | 5 | N/A | 10 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 90 | 6 | N/A | 11 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 92 | 5 | N/A | 12 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 88 | 4 | N/A | 7 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 83 | 3 | N/A | 14 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 85 | 4 | N/A | 19 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 90 | 6 | N/A | 19 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 105 | 10 | N/A | 21 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 122 | 12 | N/A | 5 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 134 | 15 | N/A | 6 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: GHM's forecast earnings growth (30.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: GHM's earnings (30.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: GHM's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: GHM's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: GHM's revenue (13.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: GHM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/18 14:06 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Graham Corporation is covered by 8 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Russell Stanley | Beacon Securities Limited |
| Jason Ursaner | CJS Securities, Inc. |
| Tate Sullivan | Maxim Group |