CNH Industrial N.V. (NYSE:CNHI) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

CNH Industrial N.V. (NYSE:CNHI) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. CNH Industrial reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$4.6b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.24, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for CNH Industrial

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering CNH Industrial is for revenues of US$21.0b in 2022, implying a concerning 37% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.28, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$21.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.32 in 2022. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$18.71, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic CNH Industrial analyst has a price target of US$21.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.30. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 46% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 2.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - CNH Industrial is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for CNH Industrial. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$18.71, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple CNH Industrial analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CNH Industrial (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.