Did Carrier's (CARR) Lowered 2025 Sales Outlook Just Shift Its Investment Narrative?

• Earlier this month, Carrier Global Corporation reported third quarter 2025 results, citing a year-over-year revenue decline to US$5.58 billion and a reduction in net income amid ongoing softness in North American residential sales and the European heating market.
• Alongside earnings, Carrier lowered its full-year 2025 sales guidance by US$1 billion, increased its share buyback authorization by US$5 billion, and highlighted new U.S. Department of Energy recognition for its heat pump training programs.
• We'll explore how Carrier's reduced 2025 sales guidance and shifting market conditions could influence its investment narrative and future growth assumptions.

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Carrier Global Investment Narrative Recap

Carrier Global’s story has long depended on resilient demand for sustainable HVAC technologies and the company’s ability to drive product innovation, especially in North America and Europe. The recent revenue decline and lowered 2025 sales guidance underscore the near-term risks associated with ongoing softness in North American residential demand, now the most important catalyst and biggest risk in the company’s investment narrative, with these results making a material impact.

Most directly relevant for investors is Carrier’s decision to update its 2025 guidance, reducing its sales outlook by US$1 billion. This move brings front and center the company’s exposure to regional residential market pressures, which could further challenge short-term revenue growth despite recent investments in commercial HVAC and aftermarket services.

However, investors should be aware that if residential demand stays muted, Carrier’s ability to offset this weakness...

Read the full narrative on Carrier Global (it's free!)

Carrier Global's narrative projects $26.7 billion revenue and $2.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.9% yearly revenue growth and a $1.4 billion earnings increase from $1.5 billion today.

Uncover how Carrier Global's forecasts yield a $74.29 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five values from the Simply Wall St Community show fair value estimates for Carrier Global ranging from US$26 to more than US$50,000. While community opinions can diverge sharply, the company’s lowered sales outlook raises important questions about how resilient its top line can be, prompting you to compare several views before making up your mind.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Carrier Global - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Carrier Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Carrier Global's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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