Carrier Global (CARR): Revisiting Valuation After Another Earnings Beat and Analyst Optimism

Carrier Global (CARR) grabbed attention after posting third-quarter results that topped both revenue and adjusted EPS expectations. This marks yet another quarter in which the company has outperformed consensus estimates, sparking ongoing interest from investors.

See our latest analysis for Carrier Global.

Carrier Global’s reputation for beating expectations has not stopped its share price from taking a hit recently. The company posted a 1-year total shareholder return of -23.5% and a year-to-date share price decline of 16.6%. While upbeat earnings and upcoming events like the Baird Global Industrial Conference hint at ongoing operational strength, investor sentiment remains cautious. This may reflect shifting risk outlooks for the sector. Still, longer-term total returns have been strong, gaining over 51% in five years. Momentum may yet turn if near-term uncertainty eases.

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With shares down sharply despite strong fundamentals, investors face a critical question: is Carrier Global undervalued given its attractive discount to analyst targets, or is the market already accounting for future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 21.9% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Carrier Global's latest close of $56.97 leaves it trading well below the narrative’s fair value. With analysts projecting substantially higher worth, attention is drawn to the catalysts underpinning this valuation.

Carrier's strategic expansion into the data center cooling market, including the development of integrated quantum leap cooling systems, sets the stage for substantial future earnings growth through an increase in market share and capitalizing on the high-demand sector.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which massive market trend is fueling this bullish outlook? The blueprint for this valuation blends ambitious margin expansion with commercial segment dominance. What bold assumptions power the fair value? Dive in to uncover the high-stakes bets behind this price target.

Result: Fair Value of $72.94 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer U.S. residential HVAC sales and lingering profit margin pressures could challenge Carrier Global's upside. This makes short-term surprises possible on either side.

Find out about the key risks to this Carrier Global narrative.

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the numbers yourself, it takes just a few minutes to develop your own view and share it. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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