Armstrong World Industries, Inc.'s (NYSE:AWI) Shareholders Might Be Looking For Exit

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.6x Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (NYSE:AWI) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Armstrong World Industries has been doing relatively well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Armstrong World Industries

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Armstrong World Industries would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 14% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 54% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 16% as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Armstrong World Industries is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Armstrong World Industries currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is only in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Armstrong World Industries that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Armstrong World Industries. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.