ATI (ATI): Valuation Insights After Strong Q3 Results and Major Share Buyback Completion

ATI (ATI) just delivered its latest quarterly numbers, reporting increases in both sales and net income compared to the previous year. At the same time, the company wrapped up a significant phase of its share buyback plan, which signals upbeat management sentiment.

See our latest analysis for ATI.

ATI’s momentum has picked up meaningfully, especially in recent months. The company has delivered a standout 22% 1-month share price return and a year-to-date gain of over 77%. The stock’s 1-year total shareholder return of 67.5% and remarkable 3-year total return above 230% reflect a powerful blend of improved fundamentals and surging investor confidence.

If ATI’s performance has you looking for the next breakout, it may be the perfect time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares already up sharply and the company trading just below analyst targets, the question for investors is clear: does ATI still offer room for upside or is all the future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 17% Undervalued

ATI's latest narrative suggests its fair value sits well above the last close, hinting at room for further gains based on robust fundamentals and stronger profit forecasts.

Recent long-term contract expansions with both Boeing and Airbus, including new titanium alloy sheet supply and broader product offerings, lock in higher volumes and minimums, expand ATI's share, and feature inflation pass-through and attractive pricing. These factors directly support reliable, higher-margin revenue growth and a structurally improved earnings base through the decade.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious which forward profit margin and future earnings projections led to this high fair value? The narrative hinges on upgraded profit expectations from industry contracts and ambitious growth milestones. Follow the numbers that make this valuation possible, and see for yourself if the targets are realistic or a stretch.

Result: Fair Value of $118 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent industry headwinds or overreliance on key aerospace customers could still limit ATI’s margin expansion and overall revenue growth potential.

Find out about the key risks to this ATI narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Model Say?

While the analyst consensus points to a 17% undervaluation, our SWS DCF model offers a more cautious perspective. According to the DCF, ATI’s current price of $97.65 is slightly above its fair value estimate of $94.35, which suggests the stock may be trading a bit on the expensive side. Does this method highlight different risks for investors?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ATI for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own ATI Narrative

If you see the story differently, or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, you can craft your own narrative quickly and easily: Do it your way

A great starting point for your ATI research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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