Why Ameresco (AMRC) Is Up 6.8% After Strong Q3 Earnings and New Data Center Deals

• Ameresco recently presented at RENMAD Datacenters Italia 2025 and reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings, reaffirming its full-year guidance and highlighting several new clean energy contracts, including an initiative with the City of Chandler.
• A key takeaway is that recurring revenue from energy assets and operations now exceeds 60% of EBITDA, supporting higher margins but also reflecting an increased reliance on leverage and capital spending.
• We'll now examine how Ameresco's strengthening contract pipeline, particularly in data centers, impacts its future investment narrative.

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Ameresco Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Ameresco, you need to believe that rising utility rates, surging demand for energy efficiency, and supportive government incentives will drive the transition to clean, high-margin infrastructure, setting up recurring earnings from a robust pipeline of projects. While recent news of Ameresco’s strong Q3 earnings and contract wins supports near-term optimism, its ongoing dependence on capital-intensive development and high leverage remains the most important risk, especially in light of uncertain project financing costs. At this point, the news does not materially shift these key near-term considerations.

Among Ameresco’s recent contracts, the launch of a 50 MW battery storage system in Arizona directly supports the narrative that data center-related energy solutions are a catalyst for growth. This project illustrates how expanding partnerships in mission-critical sectors can elevate Ameresco's presence in high-value markets and potentially convert backlog into recurring, higher-margin revenue.

But amid these tailwinds, investors should also be aware of the company’s exposure to higher interest rates, which could significantly affect...

Read the full narrative on Ameresco (it's free!)

Ameresco's narrative projects $2.4 billion revenue and $87.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.8% yearly revenue growth and a $25.4 million earnings increase from $62.0 million today.

Uncover how Ameresco's forecasts yield a $41.22 fair value, a 24% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates for Ameresco from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide US$36 to US$81.16 across three contributors. As recurring project and asset revenue builds, the potential impact of rising financing costs could shape how the story unfolds, so be sure to explore alternative views.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Ameresco - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Ameresco Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Ameresco research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ameresco research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ameresco's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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