Stock Analysis

The three-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on AAR (NYSE:AIR) shareholders as stock falls 6.1% over the past week

NYSE:AIR
Source: Shutterstock

It hasn't been the best quarter for AAR Corp. (NYSE:AIR) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 17% in that time. But over three years, the returns would have left most investors smiling To wit, the share price did better than an index fund, climbing 82% during that period.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for AAR

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years of share price growth, AAR actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 3.4% per year.

Based on these numbers, we think that the decline in earnings per share may not be a good representation of how the business has changed over the years. Therefore, it makes sense to look into other metrics.

It may well be that AAR revenue growth rate of 12% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:AIR Earnings and Revenue Growth October 13th 2024

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

A Different Perspective

AAR provided a TSR of 5.9% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 9% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with AAR (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.