Albany International Corp. Just Missed EPS By 9.8%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.8% to US$89.08. Albany International beat revenue expectations by 4.8%, at US$332m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.79, some 9.8% short of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Albany International after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Albany International

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Albany International are now predicting revenues of US$1.29b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 3.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 6.0% to US$3.71. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.83 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$100, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Albany International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$120 and the most bearish at US$90.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Albany International is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Albany International's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Albany International is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$100, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Albany International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Albany International's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.