What AerCap Holdings (AER)'s Sharp Profit Surge and Buybacks Mean For Shareholders

• In October 2025, AerCap Holdings reported strong third-quarter results, highlighted by significant year-over-year gains in revenue and net income, alongside the completion of several substantial share buyback tranches and the affirmation of a US$0.27 quarterly dividend.
• Notably, AerCap's basic earnings per share for the third quarter jumped to US$7.09 from US$2 a year ago, reflecting considerable improvement in profitability.
• With such a marked surge in earnings, we will explore how AerCap’s recent financial performance may influence its longer-term investment outlook.

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AerCap Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To be an AerCap Holdings shareholder, you need to believe that global air travel demand will remain resilient and that supply constraints will keep lease rates and asset values elevated, supporting profitability even as the pace of new aircraft deliveries and capital deployment fluctuates. The latest earnings surge and share buybacks are positive, but they do not fundamentally change the fact that the biggest short-term catalyst is continued strong lease extension rates, while the biggest risk remains potential aircraft oversupply as OEM deliveries ramp up, neither risk or catalyst is materially altered by these announcements.

The most relevant recent announcement is AerCap’s completion of multiple substantial share repurchase tranches, including the buyback of 13,379,426 shares (7.58% of outstanding shares) for approximately US$1,000.56 million since February. While this action can enhance earnings per share and reflects a confident capital allocation, its impact is best evaluated in the context of AerCap’s ability to maintain high lease revenue and margins amid changing market conditions.

But in contrast to today’s robust performance, investors should be aware that future earnings may face pressure if aircraft supply outpaces demand and lease rates begin to compress...

Read the full narrative on AerCap Holdings (it's free!)

AerCap Holdings' narrative projects $8.4 billion in revenue and $1.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 1.7% yearly revenue growth but a $1.5 billion decrease in earnings from the current $2.9 billion.

Uncover how AerCap Holdings' forecasts yield a $141.38 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for AerCap range from US$141.38 to US$322.69 across 2 perspectives. While community opinions differ widely, future industry risks like accelerated aircraft deliveries could impact growth and valuations, making it vital to consider several viewpoints.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on AerCap Holdings - why the stock might be worth just $141.38!

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AerCap Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AerCap Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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