Arcosa, Inc.

NYSE:ACA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.5b

Arcosa Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Arcosa's revenue is forecast to decline at 1.5% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 4.9% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 4.7% per annum.

Key information

4.9%

Earnings growth rate

4.74%

EPS growth rate

Construction earnings growth23.2%
Revenue growth rate-1.5%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated05 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 21

ACA: 2026 Earnings Outlook And Steady Fair Value Will Support Bullish View

Analysts have kept Arcosa's fair value estimate steady at $128.40 while updating assumptions around revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and a higher future P/E to reflect a refreshed view of the company's risk and earnings profile without a change in the headline target. What's in the News Arcosa confirmed full year 2026 guidance with expected consolidated revenue in the range of US$2.95b to US$3.10b, compared with US$2.88b in 2025, and projected net income between US$224.4 million and US$249.5 million (company guidance).
Narrative Update • Apr 04

ACA: 2026 Revenue And Earnings Guidance Will Underpin Constructive Bullish Thesis

Analysts have nudged their price target on Arcosa slightly higher to $128.40, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that are now more closely aligned with their refreshed models. What's in the News Arcosa has provided earnings guidance for the full year 2026, with expected consolidated revenues in a range of $2.95b to $3.10b and net income projected between $224.4 million and $249.5 million (Key Developments).
Seeking Alpha • Mar 22

Arcosa: Making Strategic Progress

Summary Arcosa has strategically divested its inland barge business, enhancing its portfolio by reducing capital intensity and focusing on higher-margin segments. Arcosa trades at attractive valuations—about 22x earnings and 10–11x EBITDA—following a meaningful share price pullback from $130 to $100. Pro forma leverage drops to the low 1x range, with net debt expected to fall to $750 million and EBITDA comfortably exceeding $500 million. I remain upbeat on Arcosa's transformation, viewing current levels as an attractive entry, especially if shares dip into the $90s. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 21

ACA: 2026 Revenue And Earnings Guidance Will Support Constructive Bullish Thesis

Arcosa's analyst price target remains effectively unchanged at about $127.83, as analysts cite relatively steady assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E in support of their view. What's in the News Arcosa reported that from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, it repurchased 0 shares for $0 million, completing the buyback program announced on December 12, 2024 with a total of 0 shares repurchased for $0 million (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 06

ACA: Updated 2026 Outlook Will Support Constructive View On Earnings Power

Analysts nudged their price target on Arcosa to around $128 per share from roughly $127, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Arcosa issued full year 2026 earnings guidance with expected consolidated revenues in a range of $2.95b to $3.10b.
Narrative Update • Feb 20

ACA: Steady Fair Value View Will Frame 2025 Guidance And Buyback Update

Analysts have nudged their Arcosa price target slightly lower to $126.67 from about $127.17 as small adjustments to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions work through their models. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Slight reduction, with the estimate trimmed from $127.17 to $126.67.
Narrative Update • Feb 05

ACA: Steady Fair Value View Will Frame 2025 Guidance And Buyback Update

Narrative Update on Arcosa Analysts now see Arcosa's fair value at about US$127.17, roughly US$4.00 above the prior US$123.17 view, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Revised to about US$127.17 from roughly US$123.17, a small upward adjustment in the estimated equity value.
Narrative Update • Jan 22

ACA: Steady Fair Value View Will Weigh 2025 Guidance And Buyback Update

Analysts have raised their price target on Arcosa from about US$119.83 to roughly US$123.17, citing updated assumptions regarding fair value and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Arcosa, Inc.
Analysis Article • Jan 16

Should You Investigate Arcosa, Inc. (NYSE:ACA) At US$116?

Arcosa, Inc. ( NYSE:ACA ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of 30% in the past...
Narrative Update • Jan 07

ACA: Steady Fair Value View Will Weigh 2025 Guidance And Green Debt

Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Arcosa unchanged at about US$119.83, making only minor refinements to inputs such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions that support this steady price target view. What's in the News Arcosa revised its full year 2025 consolidated earnings guidance, setting a revenue range of US$2.86b to US$2.91b compared with the previous range of US$2.85b to US$2.95b, and net income guidance of US$201.4 million to US$203.9 million (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Dec 29

Arcosa, Inc.'s (NYSE:ACA) Share Price Matching Investor Opinion

Arcosa, Inc.'s ( NYSE:ACA ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now...
Narrative Update • Dec 18

ACA: Lower 2025 Guidance Will Still Support Measured Upside Ahead

Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Arcosa upward to approximately $120.00, reflecting slightly lower discount rate assumptions and steady expectations for long term revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples. What's in the News Arcosa, Inc.
Narrative Update • Dec 03

ACA: Lower 2025 Guidance Will Still Support Attractive Upside Potential

Analysts have raised their price target on Arcosa by about $0.00 per share, reflecting marginally lower perceived risk and a slightly richer long term earnings multiple despite unchanged fundamental fair value estimates. What's in the News Arcosa, Inc.
Narrative Update • Nov 19

ACA: Revenue Range Update Will Sustain Momentum Into 2025

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Arcosa from $118.17 to $119.83 per share, citing incremental adjustments in their financial projections and updated market assumptions. What's in the News Arcosa, Inc.
Narrative Update • Nov 04

ACA: Earnings Guidance And Market Multiples Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have raised their price target for Arcosa from $116 to approximately $118.17 per share. This change reflects updated expectations for future earnings multiples, even as revenue growth and profit margin outlooks moderate.
Narrative Update • Sep 05

US Infrastructure Spending And Renewables Will Shape Future Markets

With no notable changes in Arcosa's discount rate or future P/E, analyst valuation remains stable, as reflected in an unchanged price target of $116. What's in the News Company completed no share repurchases during the latest buyback tranche, with zero shares acquired for zero dollars.
Analysis Article • Aug 07

Is Arcosa (NYSE:ACA) Using Too Much Debt?

NYSE:ACA 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Arcosa's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Warren...
Analysis Article • Jul 23

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Arcosa, Inc.'s (NYSE:ACA) P/E

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 55.8x Arcosa, Inc. ( NYSE:ACA ) may be sending very bearish signals at the...
Analysis Article • Jul 04

When Should You Buy Arcosa, Inc. (NYSE:ACA)?

While Arcosa, Inc. ( NYSE:ACA ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the NYSE gainers with a...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 01

Arcosa Is Poised For A Rebound In 2025 (Rating Upgrade)

Summary ACA's topline grew 14.4% YoY in Q4 2024, driven by strong pricing and recent acquisitions, despite a 14% decline in Transportation Products revenue. Expect continued growth in 2025, fueled by strong infrastructure demand, significant backlogs, and contributions from recent acquisitions like Stavola. ACA is optimizing its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and divestitures, aiming to reduce net leverage from 2.9x to its long-term target of 2-2.5x. A favorable mix shift toward high-margin business through acquisition should support long-term margin growth. Promising long-term prospects and a discounted valuation make ACA a decent buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 30

Arcosa: Turning Into An Aggregates Play

Summary Arcosa has transformed into a pure infrastructure play with strong growth driven by organic expansion, M&A, and strategic divestitures since its 2019 spin-off. Despite recent earnings stagnation and increased leverage, ACA's strategic acquisitions, including Stavola, position it well for future growth, though 2025 earnings growth remains uncertain. Shares have fluctuated, reflecting investor caution over high leverage and mixed performance, with current valuations appearing stretched at 25–28 times earnings. Awaiting clearer 2025 earnings projections and a potential dip before reconsidering a position in Arcosa, given the current high valuation and operational uncertainties. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 23

Arcosa: Still Not Cheap Enough

Summary Arcosa's topline growth is driven by strong demand, acquisitions, and favorable pricing, but its current premium valuation doesn't justify a 'Buy' rating. The company's Stavola acquisition should significantly contribute to revenue and market presence, supporting long-term growth. I recommend a 'Hold' rating due to the stock's overvaluation compared to historical averages and sector medians, despite promising near-term and long-term prospects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Sep 02

Critical Acquisitions And Market Adaptations Set Stage For Enhanced Earnings Growth

Arcosa's acquisition of Stavola and divestitures aim to enhance its geographic reach, improve EBITDA margins, and focus on lower-volatility markets.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 09

Arcosa: Acquisition Of Stavola Is Expected To Strengthen Its Construction Products Segment

Summary For 2Q24, ACA's revenue increased by 13.7%, driven by growth in all three revenue segments. Additionally, its adjusted margins also expanded, driven by market recoveries and business improvements. The acquisition of Stavola is expected to expand its construction products segment. Additionally, it is also expected to increase its revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin. ACA also announced its divestiture of its steel component business, which was diluting its overall margins. The proceeds will be used to pay down debt. As a result of these initiatives, ACA's portfolio mix will shift towards more weights for construction products, which reduces its business's complexity and cyclicality. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ACA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20272,8122371794124
12/31/20262,6312111603884
3/31/20262,908220238414N/A
12/31/20252,883208176341N/A
9/30/20252,749136316469N/A
6/30/20252,59180295444N/A
3/31/20252,51966253421N/A
12/31/20242,57093312502N/A
9/30/20242,486128121316N/A
6/30/20242,43714716225N/A
3/31/20242,357142101314N/A
12/31/20232,30815958261N/A
9/30/20232,226286-6191N/A
6/30/20232,23828236218N/A
3/31/20232,25628021177N/A
12/31/20222,24324536174N/A
9/30/20222,264100162272N/A
6/30/20222,22091130227N/A
3/31/20222,13274100191N/A
12/31/20212,0366981167N/A
9/30/20211,9747024110N/A
6/30/20211,90478111191N/A
3/31/20211,88890138219N/A
12/31/20201,936106178260N/A
9/30/20201,924116285367N/A
6/30/20201,879118248338N/A
3/31/20201,814116187275N/A
12/31/20191,737112N/A359N/A
9/30/20191,664119N/A219N/A
6/30/20191,59890N/A154N/A
3/31/20191,51781N/A154N/A
12/31/20181,46076N/A119N/A
9/30/20181,43472N/A146N/A
6/30/20181,42189N/A174N/A
3/31/20181,42188N/A187N/A
12/31/20171,46290N/A162N/A
12/31/20161,704123N/A228N/A
12/31/20152,140135N/A293N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ACA's forecast earnings growth (4.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: ACA's earnings (4.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ACA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ACA's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-1.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ACA's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.5% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ACA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 06:14
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Arcosa, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Adam SeidenBarclays
Daniel WangBerenberg
Robert LabickCJS Securities, Inc.