Stock Analysis

H&E Equipment Services' (NASDAQ:HEES) earnings growth rate lags the 14% CAGR delivered to shareholders

NasdaqGS:HEES
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When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But H&E Equipment Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:HEES) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 65% over five years, which is below the market return. The last year hasn't been great either, with the stock up just 0.7%.

While the stock has fallen 6.5% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for H&E Equipment Services

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, H&E Equipment Services achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 11% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 10.00.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:HEES Earnings Per Share Growth September 4th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how H&E Equipment Services has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at H&E Equipment Services' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, H&E Equipment Services' TSR for the last 5 years was 94%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

H&E Equipment Services shareholders are up 3.0% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 14% a year, over half a decade) look better. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that H&E Equipment Services is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if H&E Equipment Services might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.