Triumph Financial, Inc.

NYSE:TFIN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.6b

Triumph Financial Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Triumph Financial is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 44.5% and 7.5% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 43.8% per annum.

Key information

44.5%

Earnings growth rate

43.79%

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth8.2%
Revenue growth rate7.5%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated14 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 26

TFIN: Higher Margins And Mixed Ratings Will Shape Balanced Future Returns

Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for Triumph Financial from $66.75 to $67.80, citing modestly lower revenue growth assumptions, a higher profit margin outlook, and a slightly reduced future P/E multiple as the key drivers of the updated price target. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on how Triumph Financial is executing against expectations and how that lines up with current valuation levels.
Narrative Update • Apr 11

TFIN: Freight Partnership And Mixed Ratings Will Shape Balanced Future Returns

Triumph Financial's analyst price target has been adjusted slightly to $66.75. Analysts cite a mixed set of updates that include a modest change in fair value assumptions, a small tweak to expected revenue growth and profit margin, and differing views on the shares as reflected in recent target and rating moves.
Narrative Update • Mar 27

TFIN: Freight Payment Partnership And Balanced Risk Reward Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have edged their price expectations for Triumph Financial higher, with the latest Street research highlighting a $4 increase in one target to $70 and describing the setup as a more balanced risk and reward as the shares trade closer to this level. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more balanced setup for Triumph Financial as the share price moves closer to the cited US$70 target level.
Narrative Update • Mar 10

TFIN: Freight Payment Partnerships Will Support Upside As Risk Reward Improves

Analysts have raised their price target on Triumph Financial to $70, a $4 increase. They note that the shares now appear to offer a more balanced risk and reward profile, with seasonally softer first quarter conditions already taken into account.
Narrative Update • Feb 24

TFIN: Freight Payment Partnerships Will Support Upside Despite Seasonal First Quarter Softness

Analysts have revised their price target on Triumph Financial by $4, reflecting updated assumptions around future P/E levels while citing a more balanced risk and reward profile as shares trade closer to existing targets and as the company enters a seasonally softer first quarter. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Triumph Financial has centered on valuation expectations and the timing of near term performance as shares trade closer to existing price targets.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

TFIN: Freight Payment Partnerships And Seasonal Weakness Will Shape Balanced Outlook

Narrative Update The analyst price target for Triumph Financial has moved modestly higher to an implied fair value of $67, with analysts pointing to refined assumptions on growth, margins, and a higher forward P/E multiple. Recent Street research highlights both a $4 target increase at one firm and a shift to a more neutral risk/reward stance as shares trade closer to existing targets.
Narrative Update • Jan 24

TFIN: Freight Payment Partnerships And Seasonal Caution Will Shape Balanced Outlook

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Triumph Financial by $1 to $66, citing a more balanced risk/reward profile after a recent downgrade to Neutral. The shares are now trading closer to published price targets, with the seasonally softer first quarter also taken into account.
Narrative Update • Jan 08

TFIN: Cost Discipline And Freight Partnerships Will Support Earnings Through Transportation Weakness

Narrative Update: Triumph Financial Our analyst price target for Triumph Financial moves modestly higher to US$65.00 from US$64.25. This reflects analyst views that recent cost controls and efficiency efforts, highlighted in Q3 expense commentary and a higher FY26 EPS forecast, support slightly stronger long term revenue growth assumptions, despite some pressure on recent revenue and margin metrics.
Narrative Update • Dec 18

TFIN: Cost Discipline Will Support Earnings Amid Transportation Cycle Headwinds

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Triumph Financial from $60.50 to $64.25, citing stronger cost controls that are driving earnings outperformance and supporting a higher long term valuation multiple, despite moderating revenue growth and margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Analyst commentary around Triumph Financial has focused on the interplay between improving cost efficiency and softer top line trends, with the latest price target increase underscoring a more constructive long term earnings outlook.
Seeking Alpha • Oct 20

Triumph Financial: One Of The Last 8.5% Yielding Preferred Shares Remaining

Summary Triumph Financial specializes in the transportation sector and offers a preferred share yielding nearly 8.5% at a discount. TFIN's net interest spread and margin are declining but remain higher than many of its peers. Loan growth remains strong year-over-year, but deposit volatility has pushed the loan-to-deposit ratio to 100%, increasing reliance on external financing. Despite sector concentration and rising nonperforming assets, TFINP's high yield compensates for risks, making it attractive for income-focused investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 28

Triumph Financial: 8.4% Yielding Preferred Shares Are A Great Income Option

Summary Triumph Financial's preferred shares offer an attractive 8.4% yield, presenting a great entry opportunity for income investors amid recent market volatility. The bank's unique structure stabilizes net interest margins despite fluctuating interest rates, maintaining net interest income above pre-pandemic levels. Robust loan and deposit growth, with loans and deposits up over 10% year-over-year, supports the bank's financial stability and reduces reliance on external borrowing. While commercial real estate loans pose risks, the preferred shares remain insulated, ensuring continued dividend payouts and solid income for investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 03

Triumph Financial: No Change In Stance Just Yet

Summary Triumph Financial has a unique business model with a large factoring unit for small and medium trucking fleets, but recent stock performance has been disappointing. Despite growth in deposits and loans, a significant drop in net interest margin and rising non-interest expenses have hurt profitability. The company's price to earnings multiple is high, and it underperforms peers in return on assets and return on equity. While the long-term potential in the transportation sector is promising, current volatility and high valuation suggest maintaining a 'hold' rating for now. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Oct 20

Freight Challenges Loom But Tech Innovations And Partnerships Signal Future Revenue Growth

Strategic partnerships and innovation in AI/ML aim to drive significant revenue growth and improve net margins by lowering operational costs.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 23

Triumph Financial: Still Too Speculative To Warrant Optimism

Summary Triumph Financial is not a traditional bank; it has a significant factoring unit for trucking fleets and a robust payments platform. Despite some balance sheet improvements, declining net interest income and high valuation multiples make Triumph Financial less attractive. The payments division shows strong growth, but the trucking industry's challenges and the bank's high uninsured deposit exposure are concerning. Given its unique assets and potential rate cut benefits, I maintain a speculative 'hold' rating, though a downgrade is possible. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 01

Triumph Financial: Upgrading 8.3% Yielding Preferred Shares To A Buy

Summary Triumph Financial struggled as interest rates rose, but has shown improvement since last year. Despite some challenges, Triumph Financial has managed to maintain a healthy net interest income and strong asset yields. The bank's deposit growth has improved, reducing concerns about its loan to deposit ratio, making the preferred shares a buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:TFIN - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202750263N/AN/A4
12/31/202645542N/AN/A4
3/31/2026442284276N/A
12/31/2025436223167N/A
9/30/20254137951N/A
6/30/2025410101253N/A
3/31/202540293066N/A
12/31/202439713-2959N/A
9/30/202439719-1580N/A
6/30/202439926-2862N/A
3/31/202439931-3848N/A
12/31/2023406381660N/A
9/30/202341846429N/A
6/30/2023422494369N/A
3/31/202346986-224N/A
12/31/2022477996481N/A
9/30/202248210898111N/A
6/30/20224791168394N/A
3/31/2022438100154166N/A
12/31/2021432110123137N/A
9/30/2021417115115126N/A
6/30/2021398114123134N/A
3/31/202136210086105N/A
12/31/2020307628097N/A
9/30/2020280484876N/A
6/30/2020265402859N/A
3/31/2020261394466N/A
12/31/201928059N/A72N/A
9/30/201927460N/A77N/A
6/30/201926655N/A78N/A
3/31/201925254N/A85N/A
12/31/201823451N/A74N/A
9/30/201821139N/A67N/A
6/30/201819340N/A57N/A
3/31/201818237N/A53N/A
12/31/201716435N/A47N/A
9/30/201715335N/A42N/A
6/30/201714430N/A38N/A
3/31/201712925N/A28N/A
12/31/201612720N/A31N/A
9/30/201611618N/A26N/A
6/30/201611019N/A25N/A
3/31/201610919N/A27N/A
12/31/201510428N/A25N/A
9/30/201510126N/A27N/A
6/30/20159630N/A31N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TFIN's forecast earnings growth (44.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: TFIN's earnings (44.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TFIN's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TFIN's revenue (7.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TFIN's revenue (7.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if TFIN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/21 05:38
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/21 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Triumph Financial, Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harold GoetschB. Riley Securities, Inc.
null nullD.A. Davidson & Co.
Gary TennerD.A. Davidson & Co.