Farmers National Banc

NasdaqCM:FMNB Stock Report

Mkt Cap: US$517.4m

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Farmers National Banc Valuation

Is FMNB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FMNB?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FMNB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FMNB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FMNB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.1x
SPFI South Plains Financial
8.8x-11.9%US$530.1m
IBCP Independent Bank
8.5x-3.6%US$518.8m
MOFG MidWestOne Financial Group
9.1x-0.7%US$538.5m
HMST HomeStreet
5.9x1.1%US$511.9m
FMNB Farmers National Banc
9.8x17.0%US$517.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FMNB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (8.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FMNB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a8.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FMNB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the US Banks industry average (10x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FMNB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FMNB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.8x
Fair PE Ratio12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FMNB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FMNB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FMNB ($15.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($41.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FMNB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FMNB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.19
US$16.83
+10.8%
13.8%US$20.00US$14.50n/a3
Nov ’23US$13.87
US$17.17
+23.8%
13.1%US$20.00US$14.50n/a3
Oct ’23US$13.09
US$17.63
+34.6%
9.3%US$20.00US$15.50n/a4
Sep ’23US$14.33
US$18.75
+30.8%
6.9%US$20.00US$17.00n/a4
Aug ’23US$14.35
US$18.75
+30.7%
6.9%US$20.00US$17.00n/a4
Jul ’23US$15.23
US$19.25
+26.4%
4.3%US$20.00US$18.00n/a4
Jun ’23US$15.52
US$19.75
+27.3%
7.5%US$22.00US$18.00n/a4
May ’23US$15.32
US$20.25
+32.2%
5.4%US$22.00US$19.00n/a4
Apr ’23US$17.14
US$21.00
+22.5%
5.8%US$23.00US$20.00n/a4
Mar ’23US$16.97
US$20.75
+22.3%
6.3%US$23.00US$20.00n/a4
Feb ’23US$17.65
US$21.00
+19.0%
5.8%US$23.00US$20.00n/a4
Jan ’23US$18.55
US$20.50
+10.5%
4.2%US$22.00US$20.00n/a4
Dec ’22US$17.72
US$20.50
+15.7%
4.2%US$22.00US$20.00n/a4
Nov ’22US$18.95
US$20.00
+5.5%
0%US$20.00US$20.00US$13.874
Oct ’22US$16.11
US$19.13
+18.7%
4.7%US$20.00US$18.00US$13.094
Sep ’22US$15.60
US$19.13
+22.6%
4.7%US$20.00US$18.00US$14.334
Aug ’22US$15.35
US$19.13
+24.6%
5.3%US$20.00US$17.50US$14.354
Jul ’22US$15.77
US$18.75
+18.9%
4.8%US$20.00US$17.50US$15.234
Jun ’22US$17.48
US$18.25
+4.4%
3.1%US$19.00US$17.50US$15.524
May ’22US$16.58
US$18.25
+10.1%
3.1%US$19.00US$17.50US$15.324
Apr ’22US$16.79
US$18.00
+7.2%
4.4%US$19.00US$17.00US$17.144
Mar ’22US$14.29
US$15.75
+10.2%
5.3%US$17.00US$15.00US$16.974
Feb ’22US$13.56
US$15.75
+16.2%
5.3%US$17.00US$15.00US$17.654
Jan ’22US$13.27
US$14.75
+11.2%
2.9%US$15.00US$14.00US$18.554
Dec ’21US$12.91
US$14.38
+11.3%
4.5%US$15.00US$13.50US$17.724
Nov ’21US$11.65
US$14.13
+21.2%
7.2%US$15.00US$12.50US$18.954

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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