Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Potentially Undervalued?

While Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NYSE, rising to highs of US$39.53 and falling to the lows of US$31.67. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Harley-Davidson's current trading price of US$33.55 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Harley-Davidson’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

View our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson

What Is Harley-Davidson Worth?

According to our valuation model, Harley-Davidson seems to be fairly priced at around 11.58% above our intrinsic value, which means if you buy Harley-Davidson today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $30.07, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Harley-Davidson’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of Harley-Davidson look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Harley-Davidson, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 2.7%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in HOG’s future outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on HOG, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Harley-Davidson at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Harley-Davidson (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Harley-Davidson, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.