Does American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (NYSE:AXL) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AXL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

How Much Debt Does American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings had US$2.63b of debt in March 2025, down from US$2.77b, one year before. However, it also had US$549.2m in cash, and so its net debt is US$2.08b.

A Look At American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings' Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings had liabilities of US$1.18b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$3.36b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$549.2m in cash and US$817.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$3.18b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$511.4m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

Check out our latest analysis for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While we wouldn't worry about American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.9, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.6 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. On the other hand, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings grew its EBIT by 20% in the last year. If it can maintain that kind of improvement, its debt load will begin to melt away like glaciers in a warming world. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 89% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

Our View

Neither American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its interest cover gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.