Getting In Cheap On XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ:XPEL) Is Unlikely

XPEL, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XPEL) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.8x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, XPEL's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for XPEL

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on XPEL will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like XPEL's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 1.3%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 54% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 13% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's alarming that XPEL's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that XPEL currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for XPEL you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than XPEL. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.