A Fresh Look at Garrett Motion (GTX) Valuation Following Strong Results, Guidance Upgrade, Dividend Hike, and Buyback Completion

Garrett Motion (GTX) just delivered a string of updates that should get investors’ attention, including stronger quarterly results, a raised full-year outlook, a higher dividend, and an update on its recent share buyback.

See our latest analysis for Garrett Motion.

Investors have clearly taken notice, as Garrett Motion’s 1-month share price return of 25.8% and a year-to-date surge of 90.1% reflect strong momentum around upgraded guidance, a rising dividend, and significant buybacks. Looking longer term, the company has achieved an impressive 128% total shareholder return over the past year, with gains compounding to more than 308% over five years.

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With shares surging and fundamentals on the rise, investors now face a familiar question: is Garrett Motion still undervalued at current levels, or is the strong run a sign that markets have already priced in the company’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.3% Undervalued

With Garrett Motion’s latest close at $16.94 and the consensus fair value at $17.17 per share, investor sentiment is closely tracking the narrative outlook, keeping the stock in a tight band around its fundamental estimate. However, the nuances driving this valuation go deeper than headline numbers suggest.

Ongoing innovation and proof-of-concept awards in zero-emission technologies (E-Powertrain, E-Cooling, and fuel cell compressors), as well as expansion in industrial and non-automotive end markets, are positioning Garrett to capture higher-margin business opportunities and diversified growth, supporting both revenue and future margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what powers this valuation? One ambitious revenue assumption and a bold profit margin forecast are at the heart of this narrative, tied to future growth bets most auto suppliers never dare to make. Don’t miss out on the details that set the stage for a surprising fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $17.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, as heavy reliance on gasoline and diesel sales and ongoing margin pressure could pose challenges for Garrett Motion’s long-term earnings momentum.

Find out about the key risks to this Garrett Motion narrative.

Build Your Own Garrett Motion Narrative

If the consensus view is not for you, take a closer look at the numbers and shape your own perspective in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Garrett Motion research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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