Aurotek Corporation's (TWSE:6215) 34% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Despite an already strong run, Aurotek Corporation (TWSE:6215) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 34% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 90%.

After such a large jump in price, Aurotek's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 52.5x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Taiwan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 22x and even P/E's below 15x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For instance, Aurotek's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Aurotek

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Aurotek's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Aurotek's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 55%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 56% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 26% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Aurotek is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Aurotek have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Aurotek revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Aurotek (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.