TPK Holding Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from TPK Holding Co., Ltd. (TWSE:3673), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of NT$70b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 40% to hit NT$0.51 per share. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for TPK Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for TPK Holding from sole analyst is for revenues of NT$74.6b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 6.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 254% to NT$1.81. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of NT$74.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of NT$1.07 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analyst has become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of NT$37.57, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that TPK Holding's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 6.7% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 11% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. Although TPK Holding's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analyst is still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analyst upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards TPK Holding following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at NT$37.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price target.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on TPK Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for TPK Holding going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - TPK Holding has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.