Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With GMI Technology's (TWSE:3312) Earnings

Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for GMI Technology Inc.'s (TWSE:3312) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that shareholders have noticed something concerning in the numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for GMI Technology

Zooming In On GMI Technology's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to June 2024, GMI Technology had an accrual ratio of 0.29. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, raising questions about how useful that profit figure really is. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of NT$422m despite its profit of NT$445.6m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was NT$961m a year ago though, so GMI Technology has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. One positive for GMI Technology shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of GMI Technology.

Our Take On GMI Technology's Profit Performance

GMI Technology's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Therefore, it seems possible to us that GMI Technology's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. But at least holders can take some solace from the 15% per annum growth in EPS for the last three. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for GMI Technology (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of GMI Technology's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.