Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Full Wang International Development Co., Ltd. (GTSM:6219)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Full Wang International Development Co., Ltd. (GTSM:6219) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Full Wang International Development

The model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (NT$, Millions)	NT$556.0m	NT$495.9m	NT$459.5m	NT$437.1m	NT$423.3m	NT$415.0m	NT$410.3m	NT$408.1m	NT$407.5m	NT$408.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Est @ -10.82%	Est @ -7.32%	Est @ -4.88%	Est @ -3.17%	Est @ -1.97%	Est @ -1.13%	Est @ -0.54%	Est @ -0.13%	Est @ 0.16%
Present Value (NT$, Millions) Discounted @ 13%	NT$492	NT$388	NT$318	NT$267	NT$229	NT$199	NT$174	NT$153	NT$135	NT$120

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = NT$2.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = NT$408m× (1 + 0.8%) ÷ (13%– 0.8%) = NT$3.4b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= NT$3.4b÷ ( 1 + 13%)¹⁰= NT$984m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NT$3.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of NT$21.8, the company appears about fair value at a 3.1% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Full Wang International Development as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Full Wang International Development, there are three further elements you should assess:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Full Wang International Development (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does 6219's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Taiwanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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