Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Tex-Ray Industrial Co., Ltd. (TPE:1467) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Tex-Ray Industrial
What Is Tex-Ray Industrial's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Tex-Ray Industrial had NT$3.22b of debt, at September 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have NT$1.60b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about NT$1.62b.
A Look At Tex-Ray Industrial's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Tex-Ray Industrial had liabilities of NT$3.49b falling due within a year, and liabilities of NT$2.01b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had NT$1.60b in cash and NT$1.49b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by NT$2.42b.
This deficit isn't so bad because Tex-Ray Industrial is worth NT$4.12b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While Tex-Ray Industrial's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.4) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.0, suggesting high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that Tex-Ray Industrial actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 1,149%, over the last 12 months. If that earnings trend continues it will make its debt load much more manageable in the future. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Tex-Ray Industrial's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Tex-Ray Industrial actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last two years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
Tex-Ray Industrial's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. In contrast, our confidence was undermined by its apparent struggle to cover its interest expense with its EBIT. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Tex-Ray Industrial is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with Tex-Ray Industrial , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About TWSE:1467
Tex-Ray Industrial
Engages in weaving, manufacturing, processing, dyeing, spinning, finishing, printing, and trading of cottons, fibers, textiles, and yarns.
Low with questionable track record.