Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Podak Co., LTD. (GTSM:3537) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Podak
What Is Podak's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2020, Podak had NT$349.6m of debt, up from NT$257.3m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have NT$191.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about NT$158.1m.
How Healthy Is Podak's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Podak had liabilities of NT$654.4m due within a year, and liabilities of NT$66.8m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had NT$191.5m in cash and NT$1.11b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast NT$584.9m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This surplus suggests that Podak is using debt in a way that is appears to be both safe and conservative. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Podak has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.67. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 77.9 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Also good is that Podak grew its EBIT at 10% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Podak's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Podak recorded free cash flow of 40% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Happily, Podak's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its net debt to EBITDA is also very heartening. Zooming out, Podak seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. After all, sensible leverage can boost returns on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Podak .
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TPEX:3537
Podak
Operates as a sales agent in Taiwan, Mainland China, and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet average dividend payer.
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