New Risk • Jul 02
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.8% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.065 to ฿0.077. Revenue forecast steady at ฿48.8b. Net income forecast to shrink 40% next year vs 17% decline forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿1.11. Share price was steady at ฿1.07 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 19
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: ฿0.065 (down from ฿0.11 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: ฿14.1b (up 3.7% from 1Q 2025). Net income: ฿840.6m (down 39% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 6.0% (down from 10% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 41%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 77% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 27% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • May 19
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 3.8% Last year net profit margin: 11% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.8x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.2% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.8% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Apr 24
Price target decreased by 8.1% to ฿1.18 Down from ฿1.28, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 7.3% above last closing price of ฿1.10. Stock is down 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.065 for next year compared to ฿0.18 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 39%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast increased from ฿48.7b to ฿49.6b. EPS estimate fell from ฿0.11 to ฿0.067 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 66% next year vs 10% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿1.28. Share price was steady at ฿1.10 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 03
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to ฿1.15, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Airlines industry in Asia. Total loss to shareholders of 60% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Feb 28
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.18 (down from ฿0.27 in FY 2024). Revenue: ฿49.1b (down 2.0% from FY 2024). Net income: ฿2.34b (down 33% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.8% (down from 6.9% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 45%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 105% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Feb 25
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 21, 2026 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 21, 2026, at 14:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 55% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.076 to ฿0.118. Revenue forecast steady at ฿45.4b. Net income forecast to grow 25% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿1.14 to ฿1.23. Share price rose 4.3% to ฿1.20 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 05
Price target increased by 7.7% to ฿1.23 Up from ฿1.14, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿1.21. Stock is down 40% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.078 for next year compared to ฿0.27 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 09
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.075 to ฿0.083. Revenue forecast steady at ฿45.6b. Net income forecast to shrink 4.6% next year vs 3.8% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand . Consensus price target up from ฿1.10 to ฿1.13. Share price rose 5.4% to ฿1.18 over the past week. New Risk • Dec 02
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 6.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.2x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.0% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.3% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Third quarter 2025 results: ฿0.068 loss per share (down from ฿0.27 profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue: ฿9.93b (down 35% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: ฿874.7m (down 125% from profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 124% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 29% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Nov 14
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.1x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.1x net interest cover). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.5% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from ฿46.8b to ฿46.3b. EPS estimate also fell from ฿0.138 per share to ฿0.109 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 60% next year vs 4.5% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand . Consensus price target down from ฿1.15 to ฿1.10. Share price fell 4.5% to ฿1.27 over the past week. Announcement • Aug 23
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 12, 2025 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 12, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Aug 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 29% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from ฿49.2b to ฿47.0b. EPS estimate also fell from ฿0.168 per share to ฿0.12 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 60% next year vs 6.1% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand . Consensus price target down from ฿1.70 to ฿1.34. Share price was steady at ฿1.29 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.017 (up from ฿0.007 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: ฿11.3b (up 21% from 2Q 2024). Net income: ฿214.2m (up 155% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 1.9% (up from 0.9% in 2Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 6.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 130% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 24% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 15
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 13, 2025 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 13, 2025 New Risk • Jul 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 20% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 20% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk High level of debt (65% net debt to equity). New Risk • Jun 24
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 7.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 19% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (65% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.9% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint First quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.11 (up from ฿0.032 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: ฿13.6b (down 3.3% from 1Q 2024). Net income: ฿1.39b (up ฿1.80b from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 10% (up from net loss in 1Q 2024). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 123% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • May 09
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.6x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Price Target Changed • Apr 23
Price target decreased by 13% to ฿2.97 Down from ฿3.41, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 111% above last closing price of ฿1.41. Stock is down 36% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.26 for next year compared to ฿0.27 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to ฿1.44, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Airlines industry in Asia. Total loss to shareholders of 46% over the past three years. Announcement • Mar 15
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2025 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2025, at 14:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: thai airasia head offices meeting room, 222 don mueang international airport, 3rd fl., central office bldg., vibhavadee rangsit road, don mueang, bangkok 10210. Thailand Major Estimate Revision • Mar 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.232 to ฿0.26. Revenue forecast steady at ฿54.1b. Net income forecast to shrink 4.4% next year vs 1.4% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand . Consensus price target of ฿3.41 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.5% to ฿1.94 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.27 (up from ฿0.038 in FY 2023). Revenue: ฿50.1b (up 19% from FY 2023). Net income: ฿3.48b (up ฿3.01b from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.9% (up from 1.1% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 2.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 113% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 05
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.262 to ฿0.302. Revenue forecast steady at ฿49.9b. Net income forecast to shrink 46% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿3.71. Share price was steady at ฿2.84 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.27 (up from ฿0.14 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ฿15.3b (up 55% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ฿3.45b (up ฿5.14b from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 23% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 9.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 102% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 14
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.25 to ฿0.278. Revenue forecast steady at ฿49.5b. Net income forecast to grow 281% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿3.57 to ฿3.68. Share price was steady at ฿2.84 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 13
Price target increased by 9.7% to ฿3.68 Up from ฿3.36, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 26% above last closing price of ฿2.92. Stock is up 42% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.27 for next year compared to ฿0.038 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 30
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 21% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.17 to ฿0.206. Revenue forecast steady at ฿49.9b. Net income forecast to grow 205% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿3.36 to ฿3.57. Share price rose 8.2% to ฿2.90 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 28
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 20% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.141 to ฿0.17. Revenue forecast steady at ฿50.0b. Net income forecast to grow 233% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿3.03. Share price rose 6.8% to ฿2.82 over the past week. New Risk • Aug 14
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.5x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.5x net interest cover). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.6% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.007 (up from ฿0.083 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ฿11.7b (up 12% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ฿84.1m (up ฿1.10b from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.7% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 86% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • May 15
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.9x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.9x net interest cover). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.6% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2024 earnings released: ฿0.032 loss per share (vs ฿0.03 profit in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: ฿0.032 loss per share (down from ฿0.03 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ฿14.0b (up 52% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: ฿409.1m (down 214% from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 71% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 09
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from ฿49.8b to ฿49.2b. EPS estimate rose from ฿0.148 to ฿0.168. Net income forecast to grow 337% next year vs 0.5% decline forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿2.74 to ฿3.02. Share price was steady at ฿2.38 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 07
Price target increased by 11% to ฿2.99 Up from ฿2.69, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of ฿2.38. Stock is down 14% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.16 for next year compared to ฿0.038 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 16
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from ฿0.125 to ฿0.148. Revenue forecast steady at ฿49.8b. Net income forecast to grow 283% next year vs 0.3% decline forecast for Airlines industry in Thailand. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿2.69. Share price rose 5.9% to ฿2.50 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 15
Price target increased by 7.5% to ฿2.69 Up from ฿2.50, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 7.5% above last closing price of ฿2.50. Stock is down 8.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.15 for next year compared to ฿0.038 last year. Price Target Changed • Feb 27
Price target increased by 8.1% to ฿2.64 Up from ฿2.44, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 14% above last closing price of ฿2.32. Stock is down 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.13 for next year compared to ฿0.038 last year. Announcement • Feb 23
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 19, 2024 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 19, 2024, at 14:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: Thai AirAsia Head Office's meeting room, 222 Don Mueang International Airport 3rd Fl., Central Office Bldg., Vibhavadee Rangsit Road, Don Mueang, Bangkok Thailand Agenda: To consider and certify Minutes of the 2023 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders held on April 20, 2023; to acknowledge the Board of Directors' report on the Company's operating results for 2023; to consider and approve the Balance Sheet (Statements of Financial Position) and Statements of Income for the year ended December 31, 2023; to consider and approve the omission of the allocation of profit and the omission of dividend payment for the year 2023; and to consider other matters. Reported Earnings • Feb 23
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.038 (vs ฿0.69 loss in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.038 (up from ฿0.69 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: ฿43.0b (up 140% from FY 2022). Net income: ฿465.8m (up ฿8.50b from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.1% (up from net loss in FY 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.3% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 55% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Feb 22
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited Announces Board and Committee Changes Asia Aviation Public Company Limited announced that the Board of Directors Meeting No. 1/2024 held on February 22, 2024 acknowledged the resignation of Mr. Nuttawut Phowborom as the Company's Director and Chairman of Nomination and Remuneration Committee, effective February 22, 2024 onwards. In accordingly, the Meeting passed the resolution concurring with the proposal made by the Nomination and Remuneration Committee to appoint Mr. Kulvat Janvatanavit to be the Company's Director in replacement of Mr. Nuttawut Phowborom who resigned, effective February 22, 2024 onwards. Additionally, the Board of Directors approved the appointment of two independent directors namely Mr. Veerayooth Bodharamik as Chairman of Nomination and Remuneration Committee, and Mr. Sirot Setabandhu as a new member of Nomination and Remuneration Committee. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 20
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to ฿0.12 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 losses forecast to reduce from -฿0.153 to -฿0.12 per share. Revenue forecast steady at ฿41.2b. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 2.4% next year. Consensus price target up from ฿2.44 to ฿2.50. Share price was steady at ฿2.30 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 14
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 136% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (136% net debt to equity). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (9.5% increase in shares outstanding). Price Target Changed • Nov 09
Price target decreased by 15% to ฿2.72 Down from ฿3.18, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 31% above last closing price of ฿2.08. Stock is down 34% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of ฿0.052 next year compared to a net loss per share of ฿0.69 last year. Price Target Changed • Oct 13
Price target increased by 8.0% to ฿3.58 Up from ฿3.31, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 57% above last closing price of ฿2.28. Stock is down 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿0.078 next year compared to a net loss per share of ฿0.69 last year. Announcement • Aug 15
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 13, 2023 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 13, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 12
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: ฿0.083 loss per share (vs ฿0.41 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: ฿0.083 loss per share (improved from ฿0.41 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ฿10.4b (up 275% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: ฿1.01b (loss narrowed 79% from 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 15% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 11% per year. Announcement • Aug 03
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited Announces Resignation of Anupan Tangphanitannan as Financial Controller Asia Aviation Public Company Limited announced the resignation of Anupan Tangphanitannan as Financial Controller. Effective Date of Termination July 31, 2023. Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.029 (vs ฿0.21 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.029 (up from ฿0.21 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: ฿9.81b (up 422% from 1Q 2022). Net income: ฿359.4m (up ฿2.73b from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.7% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • May 15
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 11, 2023 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 11, 2023 Buying Opportunity • Mar 13
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 9.9%. The fair value is estimated to be ฿3.41, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 58% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 30%. Buying Opportunity • Feb 20
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 8.4%. The fair value is estimated to be ฿3.53, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 72% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 47%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 172% in a year. Earnings is forecast to grow by 81% in the next year. Announcement • Jan 20
Asia Aviation Public Company Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 23, 2023 Asia Aviation Public Company Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Feb 23, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 22
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ฿16.0b to ฿18.5b. EPS estimate fell from -฿0.69 to -฿1.09 per share. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income decline 5.8% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿3.06. Share price was steady at ฿3.08 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: ฿345 loss per share (vs ฿0.43 loss in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: ฿345 loss per share (further deteriorated from ฿0.43 loss in 3Q 2021). Revenue: ฿4.89b (up ฿4.57b from 3Q 2021). Net loss: ฿4.05b (loss widened 93% from 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 41% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 20% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Asia. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 106 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 9 non-independent directors. Independent Chairman Vichate Tantiwanich was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: ฿0.41 loss per share (vs ฿0.35 loss in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: ฿0.41 loss per share (down from ฿0.35 loss in 2Q 2021). Revenue: ฿2.77b (up 173% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: ฿4.72b (loss widened 179% from 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 285%, compared to a 54% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 6% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 20
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 expected loss increased from -฿0.44 to -฿0.55 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at ฿19.6b. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 12% next year. Consensus price target of ฿2.90 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.2% to ฿2.62 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Jun 16
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 6.2%. The fair value is estimated to be ฿3.44, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 69% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 70%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 353% in a year. Earnings is forecast to grow by 69% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 09
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 losses of -฿0.44 per share expected, vs -฿0.25 per share profit forecast previously. Revenue forecast reaffirmed at ฿18.6b. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 5.4% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿2.84. Share price was steady at ฿2.82 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 19
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2022 results: ฿0.21 loss per share. Revenue: ฿2.09b (up 82% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: ฿2.37b (loss widened 27% from 1Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 21%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 30%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 378%, compared to a 49% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Major Estimate Revision • May 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 50% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from ฿20.5b to ฿18.6b. Losses expected to increase from ฿0.17 per share to ฿0.25. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 9.0% next year. Consensus price target of ฿2.86 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ฿2.88 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 10
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from ฿21.2b to ฿21.5b. Forecast EPS reduced from -฿0.09 to -฿0.17 per share. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 28% next year. Consensus price target of ฿2.86 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.0% to ฿3.00 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to ฿2.86 Up from ฿2.51, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿2.86. Stock is up 13% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of ฿0.095 next year compared to a net loss per share of ฿1.30 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent There are 6 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, none were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 9 non-independent directors. Independent Chairman Vichate Tantiwanich was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 03
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from ฿23.9b to ฿21.2b. EPS estimate unchanged from -฿0.095 per share at last update. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 66% next year. Consensus price target of ฿2.86 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ฿2.50 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: ฿1.30 loss per share (down from ฿0.98 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: ฿4.51b (down 67% from FY 2020). Net loss: ฿6.65b (loss widened 40% from FY 2020). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 21%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 430%, compared to a 50% growth forecast for the airlines industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 67 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Dec 03
Price target increased to ฿2.84 Up from ฿2.51, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of ฿2.52. Stock is up 14% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of ฿1.08 next year compared to a net loss per share of ฿0.98 last year. Executive Departure • Dec 01
Director Tanapat Ngamplang has left the company On the 26th of November, Tanapat Ngamplang's tenure as Director ended after 2.0 years in the role. We don't have any record of a personal shareholding under Tanapat's name. A total of 2 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 3.50 years. Executive Departure • Nov 27
Director of Business Development & Director M. L. Devakula has left the company On the 26th of November, M. L. Devakula's tenure as Director of Business Development & Director ended after 3.9 years in the role. As of September 2021, M. L. still personally held 9.22m shares (฿17m worth at the time). A total of 2 executives have left over the last 12 months. The current median tenure of the management team is 3.50 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: ฿0.43 loss per share (vs ฿0.38 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a poor third quarter result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿457.5m (down 78% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: ฿2.10b (loss widened 14% from 3Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 88 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Nov 10
Price target increased to ฿2.84 Up from ฿2.51, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿2.92. Stock is up 59% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of ฿1.12 next year compared to a net loss per share of ฿0.98 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: ฿0.35 loss per share (vs ฿0.23 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with improved revenues and control over costs, although losses increased. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿1.08b (up 305% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: ฿1.69b (loss widened 48% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 95 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 17
Consensus revenue estimates fall to ฿6.15b The consensus outlook for revenues in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from ฿12.1b to ฿6.15b. Forecast losses increased from -฿0.83 to -฿1.14 per share. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 1,159% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿2.47. Share price was steady at ฿2.26 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 expected loss increased from -฿0.49 to -฿0.83 per share. Revenue forecast of ฿12.3b unchanged since last update. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 91% next year. Consensus price target of ฿2.56 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 7.0% to ฿2.46 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2021 earnings released: ฿0.38 loss per share (vs ฿0.14 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a poor first quarter result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿1.35b (down 83% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: ฿1.86b (loss widened 178% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 95 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 28
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast fell from ฿22.3b to ฿18.6b. EPS estimate unchanged from -฿0.24 per share at last update. Airlines industry in Thailand expected to see average net income growth of 65% next year. Consensus price target of ฿2.02 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 3.1% to ฿2.54 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 09
New 90-day high: ฿2.90 The company is up 18% from its price of ฿2.46 on 09 December 2020. The Thai market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Airlines industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿10.09 per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 25
Full year 2020 earnings released: ฿0.98 loss per share (vs ฿0.098 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: ฿16.2b (down 61% from FY 2019). Net loss: ฿4.76b (loss widened ฿4.29b from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 103 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 25
Earnings beat expectations, revenue disappoints Revenue missed analyst estimates by 0.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.6%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 43%, compared to a 22% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Thailand. Price Target Changed • Dec 21
Price target raised to ฿2.19 Up from ฿1.98, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. The new target price is 8.8% below the current share price of ฿2.40. As of last close, the stock is up 10% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 05
Analysts lower revenue estimates to ฿13.3b The 2020 consensus revenue estimate decreased from ฿16.0b. Earnings per share (EPS) also decreased, with analysts lowering their estimates from -฿0.79 to -฿0.96 for the same period. The Airlines industry in Thailand is expected to see an average net income growth of 22% next year. The consensus price target was lowered from ฿1.98 to ฿1.95. Share price is up 5.7% to ฿2.22 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 23
New 90-day high: ฿2.12 The company is up 8.0% from its price of ฿1.96 on 25 August 2020. The Thai market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Airlines industry, which is up 13% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿9.04 per share. Price Target Changed • Nov 12
Price target lowered to ฿1.98 Down from ฿2.24, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. The new target price is 10% above the current share price of ฿1.80. As of last close, the stock is down 22% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: ฿0.38 loss per share The company reported a poor third quarter result with increased losses and weaker revenues and control over expenses. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: ฿2.40b (down 75% from 3Q 2019). Net loss: ฿1.84b (loss widened 341% from 3Q 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 122% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 34% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 19
New 90-day low: ฿1.55 The company is down 22% from its price of ฿1.98 on 21 July 2020. The Thai market is down 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Airlines industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿9.47 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 01
New 90-day low: ฿1.75 The company is down 14% from its price of ฿2.04 on 03 July 2020. The Thai market is down 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Airlines industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿9.47 per share. 
