Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: ฿0.21. Revenue: ฿3.96b (up 8.9% from 1Q 2025). Net income: ฿402.1m (flat on 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 10% (in line with 1Q 2025). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 8.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 29
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.70 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 May 2026. Payment date: 19 May 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 60% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 7.6%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (7.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.8%). Announcement • Feb 27
Supalai Public Company Limited Proposes Cash Dividend for the Second Half-Year from 01 July, 2025 to 31 December, 2025, Payable on May 19, 2026 Supalai Public Company Limited at the AGM to be held on 21 April, 2026 proposed the interim dividend payment and approve the dividend payment from the net profit for the second half-year operations of 2025 at the rate of THB 0.70 per share as proposed. The total dividend for 2025 will be THB 1.25 per share including the interim dividend for the first half-year operations of 2025 at the rate of THB 0.55 per share. The dividend will be payable on May 19, 2026, to those shareholders who are entitled to receive the dividend as listed on the Record Date on May 7, 2026.
Record date for the right to receive dividends: 07 May, 2026; Ex-dividend date is 06 May, 2026; Payment date is 19 May, 2026; Paid from: Operating period from 01 July, 2025 to 31 December, 2025. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: ฿2.09 (down from ฿3.17 in FY 2024). Revenue: ฿24.8b (down 21% from FY 2024). Net income: ฿4.02b (down 35% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 16% (down from 20% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) were also in line with analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 25
Supalai Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 21, 2026 Supalai Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 21, 2026, at 14:30 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: supalai grand tower at convention room, 33rd floor, 1011 rama iii road, chong nonsi subdistrict, yannawa district, bangkok 10120, bangkok Thailand Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 28
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.2% to ฿18.50. The fair value is estimated to be ฿15.10, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 8.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 2.9% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 7.6% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.62 (down from ฿1.02 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: ฿6.66b (down 33% from 3Q 2024). Net income: ฿1.17b (down 41% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 18% (down from 20% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 12% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Oct 28
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.06% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (0.6% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.06% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (dividend per share is over 38x cash flows per share). Declared Dividend • Aug 16
First half dividend of ฿0.55 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.55. Ex-date: 27th August 2025 Payment date: 12th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 8.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (51% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 38x free cash flows). The dividend has increased by an average of 3.8% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 1.9% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.57 (down from ฿0.82 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: ฿6.97b (down 14% from 2Q 2024). Net income: ฿1.10b (down 31% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 16% (down from 20% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 15% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 8% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Aug 02
Price target decreased by 7.1% to ฿16.56 Down from ฿17.83, the current price target is an average from 14 analysts. New target price is 6.2% above last closing price of ฿15.60. Stock is down 5.5% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ฿2.54 for next year compared to ฿3.17 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 26
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 8.5% to ฿15.00. The fair value is estimated to be ฿19.16, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.0% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 14%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 7.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 11% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Jun 25
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Announcement • May 14
Supalai Public Company Limited (SET:SPALI) announces an Equity Buyback for 120,000,000 shares, representing 6.14% for THB 2,000 million. Supalai Public Company Limited (SET:SPALI) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 120,000,000 shares, representing 6.1% of its issued share capital for total worth of THB 2,000 million. The repurchase price shall not exceed the average closing price in the period of 5 consecutive business days prior to each repurchase date plus 15% of such average closing price. The purpose of the share repurchase is to increase the return on equity and earning per share, to reflect stability financial status and market price is lower than fundamental. The company will sell the repurchased shares. The program is valid till November 18, 2025. As of March 12, 2025, the company had 1,953,054,030 shares in issue. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: ฿0.21 (down from ฿0.31 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: ฿3.70b (down 21% from 1Q 2024). Net income: ฿404.8m (down 34% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 11% (down from 13% in 1Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 60%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.6% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 30
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.85 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 07 May 2025. Payment date: 20 May 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 46% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 9.2%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (7.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.8%). New Risk • Apr 25
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.1% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (currently running at an operating cash loss). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.1% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Announcement • Apr 24
Supalai Public Company Limited Approves Dividend for the Second Half Year 2024, Payable on May 20, 2025 Supalai Public Company Limited approved the allocation of profit for the year 2024 for distribution of dividend to shareholders at the rate of THB 1.45 per share as follows: The Company pays dividend on ordinary shares at the rate of THB 1.45 per share which totaled THB 2,832 million being 51% of the 2024 net profit, of which the Company paid interim dividend by the resolution of Board Meeting No.8/2024, dated August 13, 2024, THB 0.60 per share, the Company still has to pay the dividend for the second-half-year operations of 2024 at the rate of THB 0.85 per share. Dividend payment will be made only to the shareholders entitled to receive dividend, whose names appear on the record date of May 8, 2025. The dividend payment will be made on 20 May 2025. Declared Dividend • Feb 27
Final dividend increased to ฿0.85 Dividend of ฿0.85 is 13% higher than last year. Ex-date: 7th May 2025 Payment date: 20th May 2025 Dividend yield will be 8.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (46% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 6.8% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 1.8% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: ฿3.17 (up from ฿3.07 in FY 2023). Revenue: ฿32.0b (up 2.6% from FY 2023). Net income: ฿6.19b (up 3.3% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 19% (in line with FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 5.7%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.6% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year. Announcement • Feb 26
Supalai Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 22, 2025 Supalai Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 22, 2025, at 14:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: supalai grand tower at convention room, 33rd floor, 1011 rama iii road, chong nonsi subdistrict, yannawa district, bangkok 10120 Thailand Announcement • Feb 25
Supalai Public Company Limited Proposes Dividend for the Second Half Year of 2024, Payable on May 20, 2025 Supalai Public Company Limited announced that the Meeting should acknowledge the interim dividend payment and approve the dividend payment from the net profit for the second-half-year operations of 2024 at the rate of THB 0.85 per share as proposed. The total dividend of 2024 will be THB 1.45 per share including the interim dividend for the first-half-year operations of 2024 at the rate of THB 0.60 per share. The dividend will be payable on May 20, 2025, to those shareholders who are entitled to receive the dividend as listed on the Record Date on May 8, 2025. Ex-dividend date is May 07, 2025. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿1.02 (up from ฿0.61 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ฿9.98b (up 39% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ฿1.99b (up 67% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 20% (up from 17% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 2.5%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 20
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 11% to ฿16.90. The fair value is estimated to be ฿13.93, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.7% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 4.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 9.8% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 19% in the next 2 years. Declared Dividend • Aug 15
First half dividend of ฿0.60 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.60. Ex-date: 27th August 2024 Payment date: 12th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 8.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (52% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 7.6% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 25% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.82 (down from ฿0.87 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ฿8.13b (down 3.7% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ฿1.60b (down 6.0% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 20% (in line with 2Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 4.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.2% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 21
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from ฿32.1b to ฿36.1b. EPS estimate increased from ฿3.35 to ฿3.98 per share. Net income forecast to grow 20% next year vs 6.5% growth forecast for Real Estate industry in Thailand. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿22.69. Share price fell 2.6% to ฿19.00 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 16
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 1.0% to ฿19.30. The fair value is estimated to be ฿15.84, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.5% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 4.3%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 21% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ฿0.31 (vs ฿0.55 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: ฿0.31 (down from ฿0.55 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ฿4.67b (down 21% from 1Q 2023). Net income: ฿613.6m (down 43% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 13% (down from 18% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 26
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 2.5% to ฿19.20. The fair value is estimated to be ฿24.33, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 13%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 3.1% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 4.9% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 02
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 16% to ฿20.70. The fair value is estimated to be ฿26.24, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 15% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 13%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.7% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 3.6% per annum over the same time period. Declared Dividend • Feb 22
Final dividend of ฿0.75 announced Dividend of ฿0.75 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 7th May 2024 Payment date: 21st May 2024 Dividend yield will be 7.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (47% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 8.4% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 17% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Feb 21
Supalai Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 23, 2024 Supalai Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 23, 2024, at 14:00 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: Convention Room, 33 Floor, 1011 Rama III Road Chong Nonsi Subdistrict, Yannawa District,Bangkok 10120 Bangkok Thailand Agenda: To acknowledge the directors' report on the Company's performance and to approve the Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2023; to consider the allocation of profit for the year 2023 for distribution of dividend to shareholders at the rate of 1.45 baht per share; to consider and approve to elect directors in replacement of those who are retired by rotation; to consider and approve the remuneration and allowance of the Board of Directors, the Audit Committee and other sub-committees had been appointed by the Board of Director for the year 2024; and to consider other business matters. Reported Earnings • Feb 21
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: ฿3.07 (down from ฿4.19 in FY 2022). Revenue: ฿31.8b (down 10% from FY 2022). Net income: ฿5.99b (down 27% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 19% (down from 23% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 3.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 13% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Feb 20
Supalai Public Company Limited Proposes Dividend for the Second-Half-Year Operations of 2023, Payable on May 21, 2024 Supalai Public Company Limited at its board meeting held on February 20, 2024, approved to propose at its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders to be held on April 23, 2024, the dividend payment from the net profit for the second-half-year operations of 2023 at the rate of THB 0.75 per share. The total dividend of 2023 will be THB 1.45 per share including the interim dividend for the first-half-year operations of 2023 at the rate of THB 0.70 baht per share. The dividend will be payable on May 21, 2024 to those shareholders who are entitled to receive the dividend as listed on the Record Date on May 8, 2024. Ex-dividend date is May 7, 2024. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.61 (down from ฿1.41 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: ฿7.19b (down 37% from 3Q 2022). Net income: ฿1.19b (down 57% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 17% (down from 24% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.2% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Oct 26
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 15
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.70 per share at 6.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 August 2023. Payment date: 06 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% and the cash payout ratio is 87%. Trailing yield: 6.9%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.2%). Announcement • Aug 09
Supalai Public Company Limited Announces Cash Dividend for the Operating Period from 1 January 2023 to 30 June 2023, Payable on 6 September 2023 Supalai Public Company Limited announced cash dividend of THB 0.70 per share for the operating period from 1 January 2023 to 30 June 2023. Record date for the right to receive dividends is 23 August 2023. Payment date is 6 September 2023. Ex-dividend date is 22 August 2023. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: ฿0.87 (down from ฿1.06 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ฿8.44b (down 1.3% from 2Q 2022). Net income: ฿1.70b (down 18% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 20% (down from 24% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 5.6%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 6.2% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Aug 07
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (5.7% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (201% cash payout ratio). Announcement • Aug 01
Supalai Reportedly in Talks on Lendlease Stake Supalai Public Company Limited (SET:SPALI) is believed to be in talks with Lendlease about taking a 50% stake in its land lease community business in a deal that could be worth over $850 million. Supalai struck a deal in 2020 with Lendlease's rival Stockland, backing one of its residential land estates in Melbourne's north. The understanding is that discussions have centred on a 50-50 deal between Supalai and Lendlease over its Australian communities unit. The Lendlease portfolio of 14 land estates is one of the largest in the country, with a pipeline of about 45,000 lots. The focus is on outer suburban master planned communities. DataRoom also understands that Singaporean multinational Frasers Property was keen to buy the communities business as a whole, as was Stockland, but the price wasn't right. But the understanding is that both parties have not offered a price high enough, and that Lendlease's preference is to sell a stake. Upcoming Dividend • May 02
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.75 per share at 6.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 May 2023. Payment date: 23 May 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and the cash payout ratio is 89%. Trailing yield: 6.8%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: ฿4.19 (up from ฿3.63 in FY 2021). Revenue: ฿35.5b (up 20% from FY 2021). Net income: ฿8.17b (up 16% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 23% (in line with FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 4.9%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 2 experienced directors. 9 highly experienced directors. 4 independent directors (6 non-independent directors). Independent Director Somchai Phagaphasvivat was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: ฿1.41 (up from ฿0.88 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: ฿11.4b (up 52% from 3Q 2021). Net income: ฿2.75b (up 60% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 24% (up from 23% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 16%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 25% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Sep 26
Now 21% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be ฿23.98, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 18%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 5.4% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 15% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 16
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.70 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 23 August 2022. Payment date: 07 September 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 36% and the cash payout ratio is 84%. Trailing yield: 7.1%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.2%). Reported Earnings • May 13
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: ฿0.60 (up from ฿0.38 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: ฿5.54b (up 49% from 1Q 2021). Net income: ฿1.18b (up 59% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 21% (up from 20% in 1Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 2.2%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 4.5% compared to a 18% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 10% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buying Opportunity • May 11
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 11%. The fair value is estimated to be ฿26.56, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 2.2% per annum. Earnings is forecast to decline by 1.9% per annum over the same time period. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 2 experienced directors. 9 highly experienced directors. 4 independent directors (6 non-independent directors). Independent Director Somchai Phagaphavivat was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2015. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 20
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.75 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 April 2022. Payment date: 12 May 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 34% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 6.7%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.1%). Reported Earnings • Feb 23
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: ฿3.63 (up from ฿2.13 in FY 2020). Revenue: ฿29.6b (up 42% from FY 2020). Net income: ฿7.07b (up 66% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 24% (up from 20% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 18%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 1.9% compared to a 15% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.88 (vs ฿0.62 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿7.52b (up 25% from 3Q 2020). Net income: ฿1.72b (up 41% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 23% (up from 20% in 3Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 17
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 August 2021. Payment date: 08 September 2021. Trailing yield: 4.9%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.8%). Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.89 (vs ฿0.21 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿7.24b (up 133% from 2Q 2020). Net income: ฿1.73b (up 312% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 24% (up from 14% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 12% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ฿0.38 (vs ฿0.36 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a soft first quarter result with weaker earnings, although revenues and profit margins were flat. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ฿3.76b (flat on 1Q 2020). Net income: ฿741.1m (down 1.2% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 20% (in line with 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 6% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 25
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 April 2021. Payment date: 14 May 2021. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.0%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.8%). Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 11
New 90-day high: ฿22.00 The company is up 13% from its price of ฿19.40 on 09 December 2020. The Thai market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿12.33 per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS ฿2.13 (vs ฿2.52 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: ฿21.0b (down 13% from FY 2019). Net income: ฿4.25b (down 21% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 20% (down from 23% in FY 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 24
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 5.2%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 23%, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Price Target Changed • Feb 04
Price target raised to ฿21.74 Up from ฿20.22, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. The new target price is 6.6% above the current share price of ฿20.40. As of last close, the stock is up 21% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: ฿21.90 The company is up 34% from its price of ฿16.30 on 09 October 2020. The Thai market is up 18% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 13% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿70.88 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 16
New 90-day high: ฿19.80 The company is up 24% from its price of ฿16.00 on 16 September 2020. The Thai market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is up 19% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿68.19 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS ฿0.62 The company reported a soft third quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues were improved. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: ฿6.00b (up 2.8% from 3Q 2019). Net income: ฿1.22b (down 4.2% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 20% (down from 22% in 3Q 2019). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 17% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 11
Revenue and earnings beat expectations Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 18%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 14% compared to a 3.6% decline forecast for the Real Estate industry in Thailand. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 22
New 90-day low: ฿15.90 The company is down 5.0% from its price of ฿16.70 on 24 June 2020. The Thai market is down 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Real Estate industry, which is down 10.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿23.37 per share. 
