Upcoming Dividend • Apr 09
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.18 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 April 2026. Payment date: 29 April 2026. The company is not currently making a profit and is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.9%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (7.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.5%). Price Target Changed • Mar 14
Price target increased by 10% to ฿6.52 Up from ฿5.92, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 6.9% above last closing price of ฿6.10. Stock is up 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.016 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$0.0061 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: US$0.006 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.002 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: US$5.28b (up 2.5% from FY 2024). Net loss: US$61.5m (loss widened 160% from FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 115 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Declared Dividend • Feb 28
Dividend of ฿0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.18. Ex-date: 16th April 2026 Payment date: 29th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 5.3%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. The dividend is also not covered by cash flows (dividend approximately 152x free cash flows). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. New Risk • Nov 26
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 5.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.2x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Dividend per share is over 152x cash flows per share. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.9% average weekly change). New Risk • Nov 17
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Dividend per share is over 152x cash flows per share. Dividend yield: 5.3% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.2x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Dividend per share is over 152x cash flows per share. Declared Dividend • Aug 29
First half dividend of ฿0.12 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.12. Ex-date: 9th September 2025 Payment date: 25th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 5.0%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is covered by cash flows (72% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Price Target Changed • Aug 15
Price target increased by 7.6% to ฿5.45 Up from ฿5.07, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 14% above last closing price of ฿4.78. Stock is down 6.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.01 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$0.0024 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: US$0.003 loss per share (vs US$0.003 profit in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: US$0.003 loss per share (down from US$0.003 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$1.24b (down 5.4% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: US$28.6m (down 212% from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 69 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 01
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 13% to ฿4.92. The fair value is estimated to be ฿6.17, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.7% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • May 10
First quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2025 results: US$0.001 loss per share (down from US$0.004 profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$1.28b (up 13% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: US$14.2m (down 133% from profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 60%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 47 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Apr 09
Price target decreased by 12% to ฿5.53 Down from ฿6.30, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 29% above last closing price of ฿4.30. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.016 next year compared to a net loss per share of US$0.0024 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 04
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.12 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 11 April 2025. Payment date: 30 April 2025. The company is not currently making a profit but it is cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 5.7%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (7.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (6.9%). Reported Earnings • Feb 28
Full year 2024 earnings released: US$0.002 loss per share (vs US$0.042 profit in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: US$0.002 loss per share (down from US$0.042 profit in FY 2023). Revenue: US$5.15b (flat on FY 2023). Net loss: US$23.7m (down 106% from profit in FY 2023). Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 46% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 29% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 27
Banpu Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 04, 2025 Banpu Public Company Limited, Annual General Meeting, Apr 04, 2025, at 13:30 SE Asia Standard Time. Location: electronics meeting only, Thailand Announcement • Feb 26
Banpu Public Company Limited Proposes Cash Dividend, Payable on 30 April 2025 Banpu Public Company Limited at its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders to be held on 04 April 2025, proposed cash dividend of THB 0.12 per share. Record date for the right to receive dividends is on 16 April 2025 with Ex-dividend date is on 11 April 2025. Payment date on 30 April 2025. Paid from: Retained Earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 52%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$5.01b to US$5.15b. EPS estimate fell from US$0.0163 to US$0.0078 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 37% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand . Consensus price target down from ฿6.70 to ฿6.40. Share price fell 4.9% to ฿4.66 over the past week. New Risk • Feb 10
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.4x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (279% cash payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.4% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • Dec 14
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from US$0.014 to US$0.016. Revenue forecast steady at US$4.98b. Net income forecast to shrink 14% next year vs 3.2% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand . Consensus price target of ฿6.43 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ฿5.90 over the past week. New Risk • Dec 04
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.2% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.4x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.2% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (279% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.7% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.4% net profit margin). New Risk • Nov 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Thai stocks, typically moving 6.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.4x net interest cover). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (279% cash payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.4% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 19
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$4.63b to US$4.91b. EPS estimate fell from US$0.016 to US$0.014 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 12% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿6.77. Share price fell 3.4% to ฿5.60 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: US$0.002 loss per share (down from US$0.007 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$1.34b (down 8.8% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: US$23.8m (down 140% from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 7.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to decline by 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 19% per year. Announcement • Sep 26
Thailand's Banpu, Just Climate & CapitaLand Reportedly Shortlisted to Buy Radiance Renewables in $325 Million Deal Banpu Public Company Limited (SET:BANPU) has joined the fray to acquire Eversource Capital-backed Radiance Renewables Private Limited, two people aware of the development said, in a deal having an enterprise value of around $325 million. The firm has been shortlisted to make a binding offer for the 100% stake sale of Radiance; that puts it in competition with former US vice-president Al Gore headed Generation Investment Management's Just Climate LLP, and Singapore's CapitaLand Investment Ltd. that have also been shortlisted for the second round, post submission of their non-binding offers (NBOs) in the sale process run by Rothschild & Co. "Banpu, Just Climate and CapitaLand have been shortlisted for the second round," said one of the two people cited above requesting anonymity. Mint earlier reported about Just Climate LLP and CapitaLand Investment Limited (SGX:9CI) exploring an acquisition of Eversource Capital-backed Radiance Renewables, which operates in the commercial and industrial (C&I) segment. Radiance, which has an operating capacity of 350 MW C&I projects, is also backed by India's quasi-sovereign wealth fund National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) and the UK government's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). The British International Investment Plc is owned by the FCDO. Spokespersons for Rothschild & Co. and Just Climate declined comment. A CapitaLand Investment Ltd. spokesperson in an emailed response said, "We regret we do not comment on market rumours or speculation." A spokesperson for British International Investment Plc in an emailed response said, "As a matter of company policy, we do not comment on market speculation." Radiance Renewables executive director and chief executive officer Manikkan Sangameswaran in an emailed response said, "No comments from me on this." Queries emailed to the spokespersons for Eversource Capital, Banpu Public Company, and NIIF on September 23, 2024 evening remained unanswered till press time. Price Target Changed • Sep 21
Price target increased by 9.9% to ฿6.63 Up from ฿6.03, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 10% below last closing price of ฿7.40. Stock is down 5.7% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.015 for next year compared to US$0.042 last year. Declared Dividend • Aug 30
First half dividend of ฿0.18 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.18. Ex-date: 10th September 2024 Payment date: 26th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 7.0%, which is higher than the industry average of 5.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (19% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (151% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 46% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 79% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Aug 28
Banpu Public Company Limited Declares Interim Dividend for the Period from January 1, 2024 to June 30, 2024, Payable on September 26, 2024 Banpu Public Company Limited declared interim dividend of THB 0.18 per share for the period from January 1, 2024 to June 30, 2024. Record date for the right to receive dividends is September 11, 2024, Ex dividend date is September 10, 2024 and payment date is September 26, 2024. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.003 (vs US$0.002 loss in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.003 (up from US$0.002 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$1.31b (up 18% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$25.5m (up US$38.4m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 2.0% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 6.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 23% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$4.36b to US$4.54b. EPS estimate fell from US$0.019 to US$0.015 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 40% next year vs 6.7% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿6.77 to ฿6.30. Share price was steady at ฿5.35 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: US$0.004 (vs US$0.017 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.004 (down from US$0.017 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$1.09b (down 17% from 1Q 2023). Net income: US$43.5m (down 70% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 11% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 29
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 April 2024. Payment date: 30 April 2024. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 18%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (6.2%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 02
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from US$4.41b to US$4.31b. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.022 per share to US$0.016 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 56% next year vs 9.2% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿7.58 to ฿6.80. Share price fell 6.9% to ฿5.40 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Feb 25
Price target decreased by 7.7% to ฿7.00 Down from ฿7.58, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 21% above last closing price of ฿5.80. Stock is down 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.023 for next year compared to US$0.042 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$0.042 (down from US$0.23 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$5.16b (down 33% from FY 2022). Net income: US$371.8m (down 77% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 7.2% (down from 21% in FY 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 21%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Feb 23
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.2x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (134% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.0% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (19% increase in shares outstanding). Declared Dividend • Feb 23
Dividend of ฿0.20 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of ฿0.20. Ex-date: 5th April 2024 Payment date: 30th April 2024 Dividend yield will be 7.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 5.3%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (134% earnings payout ratio). However, it is well covered by cash flows (48% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 49% to bring the payout ratio under control. However, EPS is expected to decline by 1.7% over the next 2 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from US$0.026 to US$0.023 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$4.94b. Net income forecast to grow 17% next year vs 1.9% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target of ฿8.16 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ฿6.30 over the past week. New Risk • Jan 24
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.6% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.2x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.6% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (134% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.0% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (19% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Dec 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.2x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (134% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.0% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (19% increase in shares outstanding). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$4.67b to US$5.00b. EPS estimate fell from US$0.03 to US$0.026 per share. Net income forecast to grow 44% next year vs 3.3% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿9.03. Share price was steady at ฿8.00 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 14
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.007 (vs US$0.072 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.007 (down from US$0.072 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$1.47b (down 39% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$59.2m (down 88% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 4.0% (down from 20% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 5.4% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 64% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Nov 14
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.2x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.2x net interest cover). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (157% payout ratio). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (3.0% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (19% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Oct 06
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 19% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 41% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (100% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (8.7% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (19% increase in shares outstanding). Upcoming Dividend • Sep 05
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.25 per share at 18% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 September 2023. Payment date: 29 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 29% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 18%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (6.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (6.0%). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 24
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 31%, revenue upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$4.69b to US$4.87b. EPS estimate fell from US$0.055 to US$0.038 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 45% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿9.39. Share price was steady at ฿8.80 over the past week. New Risk • Aug 19
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 8.7% Last year net profit margin: 16% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 43% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (100% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (8.7% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (25% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Aug 18
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.001 loss per share (vs US$0.055 profit in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: US$0.001 loss per share (down from US$0.055 profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$1.11b (down 37% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: US$12.9m (down 103% from profit in 2Q 2022). Revenue is expected to fall by 27% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 5.0% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 89% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.017 (vs US$0.046 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.017 (down from US$0.046 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$1.31b (up 4.5% from 1Q 2022). Net income: US$147.1m (down 53% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 11% (down from 25% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is expected to fall by 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 5.2% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 105% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • May 11
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$4.86b to US$5.04b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.076 to US$0.085 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 39% next year vs 13% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target down from ฿13.21 to ฿10.34. Share price fell 8.3% to ฿8.30 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 09
Price target decreased by 21% to ฿10.73 Down from ฿13.57, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 25% above last closing price of ฿8.60. Stock is down 29% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.073 for next year compared to US$0.16 last year. Price Target Changed • May 02
Price target decreased by 7.0% to ฿13.21 Down from ฿14.21, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 45% above last closing price of ฿9.10. Stock is down 25% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.075 for next year compared to US$0.16 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 03
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.75 per share at 13% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 April 2023. Payment date: 28 April 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 21% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 13%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (6.8%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 10
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 17% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast increased from US$3.87b to US$4.55b. EPS estimate unchanged from US$0.072 at last update. Oil and Gas industry in Thailand expected to see average net income decline 5.7% next year. Consensus price target down from ฿15.48 to ฿15.13. Share price was steady at ฿10.80 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2022 results: EPS: US$0.16 (up from US$0.049 in FY 2021). Revenue: US$7.69b (up 87% from FY 2021). Net income: US$1.16b (up 282% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 15% (up from 7.4% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is expected to fall by 37% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 7.4% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 117% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 25
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 32% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from US$0.12 to US$0.081. Revenue forecast unchanged from US$3.90b at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 6.9% next year vs 0.5% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand . Consensus price target down from ฿16.10 to ฿15.48. Share price rose 2.8% to ฿11.20 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.072 (vs US$0.021 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.072 (up from US$0.021 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$2.40b (up 106% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$487.3m (up 358% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 20% (up from 9.2% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 5.7% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 115% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.072 (vs US$0.021 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.072 (up from US$0.021 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: US$2.40b (up 106% from 3Q 2021). Net income: US$487.3m (up 358% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 20% (up from 9.2% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 5.4% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 115% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 07
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.45 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 September 2022. Payment date: 30 September 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 16% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 6.3%. Within top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.1%). Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.055 (vs US$0.008 in 2Q 2021) Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.055 (up from US$0.008 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: US$1.77b (up 122% from 2Q 2021). Net income: US$371.8m (up US$329.5m from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 21% (up from 5.3% in 2Q 2021). Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 4.4% compared to a 2.9% decline forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 02
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$4.73b to US$5.23b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.10 to US$0.11 per share. Net income forecast to grow 48% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿16.09 to ฿16.41. Share price was steady at ฿13.10 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 13
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$4.63b to US$4.89b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.09 to US$0.10 per share. Net income forecast to grow 33% next year vs 0.8% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target up from ฿15.53 to ฿16.00. Share price was steady at ฿13.00 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 17
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from US$0.08 to US$0.06. Revenue forecast unchanged from US$3.42b at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 13% next year vs 12% decline forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target of ฿15.21 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at ฿11.90 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 13
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: US$0.046 (up from US$0.01 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: US$1.26b (up 71% from 1Q 2021). Net income: US$310.5m (up US$259.8m from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 25% (up from 6.9% in 1Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 25%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 16% compared to a 16% growth forecast for the industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 33% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 01
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.25 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 April 2022. Payment date: 29 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 23% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (5.1%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.7%). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from US$3.71b to US$3.96b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.06 to US$0.07 per share. Net income forecast to grow 98% next year vs 3.3% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at ฿15.11. Share price fell 2.7% to ฿11.00 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 03
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to ฿12.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Total returns to shareholders of 5.8% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ฿11.78 per share. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2021 results: EPS: US$0.049 (up from US$0.011 loss in FY 2020). Revenue: US$4.12b (up 81% from FY 2020). Net income: US$303.9m (up US$359.7m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 7.4% (up from net loss in FY 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 17%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 8.4% compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the oil industry in Thailand. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 13% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.021 (vs US$0.003 loss in 3Q 2020) The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$1.16b (up 147% from 3Q 2020). Net income: US$106.5m (up US$123.0m from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 9.2% (up from net loss in 3Q 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 48 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 06
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to ฿12.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Total loss to shareholders of 8.8% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ฿17.50 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 01
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.20 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 September 2021. Payment date: 23 September 2021. Trailing yield: 3.2%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (4.9%). In line with average of industry peers (3.0%). Price Target Changed • Aug 22
Price target decreased to ฿13.61 Down from ฿15.07, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 33% above last closing price of ฿10.20. Stock is up 94% over the past year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 16
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 27% share price decline to US$10.00, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Total loss to shareholders of 43% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ฿14.65 per share. Reported Earnings • Aug 11
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.008 (vs US$0.016 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$799.3m (up 54% from 2Q 2020). Net income: US$42.3m (up US$121.0m from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 5.3% (up from net loss in 2Q 2020). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 82 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Jun 18
Price target increased to ฿15.39 Up from ฿14.11, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿16.00. Stock is up 150% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Jun 01
Price target increased to ฿13.76 Up from ฿12.83, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿13.80. Stock is up 109% over the past year. Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS US$0.01 (vs US$0.011 in 1Q 2020) The company reported a soft first quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: US$735.8m (up 16% from 1Q 2020). Net income: US$50.7m (down 7.3% from 1Q 2020). Profit margin: 6.9% (down from 8.7% in 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 79 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Apr 06
Price target increased to ฿12.64 Up from ฿11.42, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of ฿12.30. Stock is up 97% over the past year. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 05
Upcoming dividend of ฿0.15 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 April 2021. Payment date: 30 April 2021. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of Thai dividend payers (4.9%). In line with average of industry peers (2.6%). Price Target Changed • Feb 28
Price target raised to ฿10.63 Up from ฿9.88, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. The new target price is 7.6% below the current share price of ฿11.50. As of last close, the stock is up 62% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Feb 24
Full year 2020 earnings released: US$0.011 loss per share (vs US$0.004 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: US$2.28b (down 17% from FY 2019). Net loss: US$55.7m (loss widened 184% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 87% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 23% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Feb 24
Revenue beats expectations, earnings disappoint Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 0.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 41%, compared to a 22% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Thailand. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 11
New 90-day high: ฿11.80 The company is up 61% from its price of ฿7.35 on 13 November 2020. The Thai market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is up 17% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿39.48 per share. Price Target Changed • Feb 09
Price target raised to ฿9.88 Up from ฿8.98, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. The new target price is 13% below the current share price of ฿11.30. As of last close, the stock is up 12% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Dec 19
Price target raised to ฿8.09 Up from ฿7.47, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. The new target price is 28% below the current share price of ฿11.30. As of last close, the stock is down 5.0% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 16
New 90-day high: ฿10.10 The company is up 85% from its price of ฿5.45 on 17 September 2020. The Thai market is up 15% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is up 23% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿25.58 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 11
New 90-day high: ฿7.35 The company is up 31% from its price of ฿5.60 on 13 August 2020. The Thai market is up 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿18.65 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: US$0.003 loss per share The company reported a poor third quarter result with increased losses and weaker revenues and control over expenses. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: US$470.5m (down 28% from 3Q 2019). Net loss: US$16.5m (loss widened 378% from 3Q 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 74% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 25% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 26
New 90-day high: ฿6.65 The company is up 12% from its price of ฿5.95 on 24 July 2020. The Thai market is down 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is down 15% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿20.19 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 06
New 90-day high: ฿6.50 The company is up 2.0% from its price of ฿6.40 on 08 July 2020. The Thai market is down 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Oil and Gas industry, which is down 20% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is ฿2.81 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 19
Analysts update estimates Analysts forecast the company to report a loss in 2020, lowering their consensus EPS forecasts from US$0.0021 to -US$0.013. No change was made to the revenue estimate which at the last update was US$2.34b. The Oil and Gas industry in Thailand is expected to see an average net income growth of 35% next year. The consensus price target of ฿7.04 was unchanged from the last update. Share price is up 11% to ฿6.20 over the past week. 
