Eneco Energy Limited's (SGX:R14) 29% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Eneco Energy Limited (SGX:R14) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 29% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 36% over that time.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Eneco Energy's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Logistics industry in Singapore, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Eneco Energy

How Has Eneco Energy Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Eneco Energy over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Eneco Energy's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Eneco Energy's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.5%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 17% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Eneco Energy is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Eneco Energy's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our look at Eneco Energy revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Eneco Energy you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.